On March 2, news broke that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei died in an airstrike incident, and prediction markets related to his death are facing strong criticism from U.S. political circles. Some U.S. senators are calling on regulators to restrict prediction market contracts settled on personal death, quickly bringing crypto prediction platforms and related financial products into the spotlight.
Data shows that on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, contracts related to the timing of the Iran airstrike have traded over $529 million. Meanwhile, on the prediction platform Kalshi, trading volume for contracts on whether Khamenei will remain as the Supreme Leader has exceeded $50 million, with about $20 million traded just on Saturday alone. Following confirmation of the airstrike, these contracts rapidly moved toward settlement.
According to documents submitted by Kalshi to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), all positions are settled based on the last transaction price before Khamenei’s death. The platform then paused trading and closed the contracts. However, there are discrepancies between the settlement rules described on the market page and the official documents, raising user concerns. The market remained active for hours between the airstrike and the death confirmation, becoming a point of controversy.
Kalshi later issued a statement acknowledging ambiguities in some rules and announced that all market fees would be refunded. Additionally, any positions opened after Khamenei’s death will be fully refunded.
Meanwhile, blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found that six newly created accounts profited about $1 million by accurately predicting the timing of the Iran attack on February 28. These accounts almost exclusively bet on the attack date, with some trades completed hours before the airstrike began. Nicolas Vaiman, CEO of Bubblemaps, noted that war and conflict-related events often attract informed traders to bet early, and anonymous trading environments may amplify this risk.
U.S. Senator Adam Schiff, along with several Democratic colleagues, has jointly written to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, demanding that regulators ban prediction market contracts related to personal death and requiring a response by March 9. Industry organization Coalition for Prediction Markets also publicly stated that contracts involving death events should not appear in U.S. markets.
Analysts believe that as the intersection of war, politics, and crypto prediction markets continues to expand, regulators may strengthen oversight of these platforms in the future. The legality and ethical boundaries of prediction market contracts are expected to become new issues in financial regulation.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Prediction Market Trading Volume Expected to Exceed $1 Trillion by 2030, Bernstein Report Highlights
Bernstein's report forecasts prediction market trading volume will surge from $51 billion in 2025 to $1 trillion by 2030, driven by regulatory clarity, blockchain support, and mainstream integration. Industry revenue is expected to rise from $400 million to $10.8 billion, with retail brokerages gaining a competitive edge.
GateNews1h ago
Trader with 100% Win Rate Bets $12.3K That MicroStrategy Will Hold Over 1M BTC by Year-End
A trader known as epsteinfiles has placed a $12,300 bet with Lookonchain, predicting that MicroStrategy will hold over 1 million BTC by December 31, 2026, with a flawless track record in past bets.
GateNews11h ago
Encourage innovation! U.S. judges ban Arizona from regulating prediction markets, pausing the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona is barred from bringing charges against prediction market platform Kalshi under gambling laws, finding that the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in regulating financial markets. Kalshi, meanwhile, insists that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Rulings by different states on prediction markets have varied, and the Trump family has also voiced support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity12h ago
21Shares 更新 Hyperliquid ETF 申請，揭露 THYP 代碼
21Shares updates its Hyperliquid ETF filing, confirming the stock ticker THYP, which is seen as an adjustment in response to SEC comments. This move increases the likelihood of the ETF being listed. Compared with Bitwise’s HYPE ETF, the latter has already announced a 0.67% management fee, one of the highest in the market. The Hyperliquid platform’s strong fundamentals attract attention, but given the uncertainty around inflows of meme-coin ETF funds, market demand still needs to be watched.
MarketWhisper12h ago
Major CEX Partners with High Roller Technologies to Enter Prediction Market Space
A major centralized exchange has partnered with High Roller Technologies to provide prediction market services in the U.S. Analysts project significant growth in this sector, although it faces regulatory challenges.
GateNews14h ago
Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona’s regulation of prediction markets and suspends the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled that Arizona may not rely on its gambling law to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, while Kalshi maintains that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions by states on prediction markets have differed, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity15h ago
