What really caught my attention wasn’t that $ETH suddenly surged, but that the earlier pullbacks didn’t break the structure. These details matter a lot in trading. My view is that as long as the rhythm around 1672.33 hasn’t gone out of control, there’s still room for upside. After the price pushed to 1809.71, the market’s feedback was pretty direct; the current +1429.61% is essentially a rhythm realization. During this move, I wasn’t overly excited. Instead, I focused more on profit protection and drawdown control—because in an uptrend, it’s easiest for emotions to distort judgment. After trading for so long, I’m increasingly feeling that documenting the process is more meaningful than just looking at the outcome. I’ll keep observing going forward in line with my own rhythm. $BTC $SOL

【Price Trend Analysis】 1. K-line pattern: * The 4-hour chart shows that the latest K-line (07/13 08:00) is a doji or a small real body K-line with a long upper wick. The high reached 1848, and the close was 1809.35, accompanied by a huge volume. This indicates strong sell pressure around 1848, with bullish attempts being stalled. * On the daily chart, after the price rose on 07/10 and 07/12, today (07/13) set a new recent high of 1848, but then fell back, showing that upward momentum has weakened. 2. Technical indicators: * On the 4-hour chart, MACD shows that the DIF line (13.09) has crossed below the DEA line (13.27). The MACD histogram has turned from positive to negative (-0.35), forming a death cross. This suggests short-term bullish momentum has exhausted and the trend may shift toward a pullback. * On the 4-hour chart, RSI is currently 56.28, staying in a neutral region, but it has fallen from the recent high of 60.63, indicating weakening market buy pressure. * On the 4-hour chart, the EMA moving averages: the price is currently near EMA7 (1809.00), and EMA7 shows signs of flattening or turning downward. EMA30 (1788.12) and EMA120 (1736.89) still maintain an upward trend, providing support below. 3. Trading volume: * On the 4-hour chart, the latest K-line (07/13 08:00) has trading volume as high as 1248817, the highest volume in the recent period. However, the price failed to effectively break through and hold above 1848, forming a volume-expansion stall, suggesting a possible pullback in the short term. * On the daily chart, trading volume remained active during the recent upswing, but today (07/13), after making a new high, it saw a pullback. Combined with the volume-expansion stall on the 4-hour chart, short-term top risk should be watched closely.$BTC ‌$ETH ‌

Crypto Big Brother’s 0713 ETH daily thoughts Entry timing: 18:20-18:30 Add to short on the breakout: 18:35-18:45 area Short-term long test: pullback to 17:85-17:90 for a light, low-bid buy Stop-loss settings Unified stop-loss for shorts: above 18:55 Stop-loss for short-term longs: below 17:80 Take-profit by tiers Shorts, target one: 17:85 Shorts, target two: 17:60 Short-term longs, targets: 18:15-18:20 0713 macro and news: inflation rebounds; ETH is most sensitive to liquidity depletion Geopolitical conflict ignites inflation, and rate-hike expectations are reignited: on July 13, the US-Iran ceasefire broke down, and the Strait of Hormuz crisis sent oil prices soaring. Inflation rebounding directly shattered the market’s dream of rate cuts, and even started pricing in the Fed resuming rate hikes. ETH is extremely sensitive to macro liquidity—once rate expectations rise, ETH’s valuation-drawdown is far more brutal than BTC’s. The deflation narrative is completely shattered: since the Dencun upgrade, Layer2 has drained the mainnet’s Gas fees. Latest data shows ETH burn has sharply declined, and ETH is back in an inflationary state. The “ultrasound money” narrative that once supported high valuations has collapsed, and fundamental support has been greatly weakened. 0713 fund flows: ETF outflows end but weakness remains obvious; institutions look to cut positions ETF inflows are just “leaky buckets”: data shows that for the week of July 7 to 11, ETH spot ETFs recorded about $84.42 million net inflow, ending eight straight weeks of capital outflows. But this is only short-term position replenishment after prior oversold conditions. Compared with the huge gap of more than $2.0 billion in net outflows over the previous months, these more than $420k are barely anything—incremental capital is still drying up. On-chain activity hits a freezing point: Glassnode shows the number of active addresses on the ETH network drops to a low of 420 thousand, with user participation continuing to decline. With no native on-chain demand to support it, rebounds are like water without a source. Big whales unload on the rebound: although the number of some early whale addresses has increased, above $1,800, on-chain monitoring shows multiple large-holder addresses continue transferring ETH into exchanges. The main force is wildly distributing chips during the ETF-short-term inflow window, and the risk of retail bag-holding is extremely high. $ETH #伊朗宣布关闭霍尔木兹海峡