KRYPTON_bit

The US labor market is signaling again
New unemployment claims:
• 210K (fact)
• 211K (expected)
• 205K (previous)
Continuing claims:
• 1,819K (fact)
• 1,860K (expected)
• 1,851K (previous)
What does this mean?
➤ There are no mass layoffs — new claims are barely rising.
➤ But the number of people remaining unemployed for a long time is high again.
➤ This signals that the labor market is cooling down slowly but steadily.
Why is this important for crypto and markets?
➤ The weaker the labor market — the higher the chance the ФРС will start cutting rates.
➤ And rate cuts = more liquidity and increa

Whales are accumulating, the market is buzzing: what’s happening with BTC
On-chain:
• The number of wallets with 100+ BTC increased by +753,019,283,746,565,748,392,01 +3.9% over 3 months
→ while the price fell by –20%
👉 This is a classic bullish divergence: major players are buying on the dip
• BTC-ETFs are showing record volumes
→ up to $31.6 billion per day
→ all top volumes occurred in recent weeks
👉 The market has become highly active and polarized
What’s happening under the hood:
• After the decline, liquidity surged sharply, causing panic and redistribution
• Currently, liquidity is de

Fed: Rate Unchanged, But Signal is Hawkish
The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.75% — a decision that matched market expectations.
• One Fed member voted for a 25 bps cut
• The regulator continues QE (bond purchases)
• Economy remains resilient, but inflation is still above target
• Uncertainty remains high (including due to geopolitics)
• GDP: upward revision (growth persists)
• PCE inflation: ~2.7% in 2026, return to 2% only by 2028
• Rate: market now expects fewer cuts
→ in 2026 only 1 move of –25 bps is possible
The Fed makes clear:
easing will be slow and limited.
For markets, this is a ne

📊 BTC: First Signs of Reversal or a Trap?
The market is currently at an interesting point:
• Average entry price for short-term holders ≈ $85 000
→ at the current price of (~$73 000) they are on average in –14% losses — this is a source of pressure during rallies
• Just 2 weeks ago BTC was below fair value
→ now the price has returned above, which formally breaks the bearish structure
• Important signal — growth in spot CVD
→ for the first time in a long while, buyers have started absorbing sales, and on multiple exchanges
• Meanwhile, the market structure is strong:
→ 60% of supply held by l

🚨 Red flag from Wall Street: withdrawal restrictions
In Q1 2026, several major players — BlackRock, Blackstone, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley — limited or partially blocked withdrawals from private credit funds.
This is not a rumor — the data is confirmed by official documents.
These funds invest in long-term loans that cannot be quickly sold without losses. As withdrawal requests increase, a classic liquidity problem emerges.
A similar situation occurred in 2007 — then withdrawal restrictions appeared in mortgage funds before the systemic crisis.
This is not yet a crisis, but the signal is import

🚨 Liquidity Problems in the Private Credit Market
Several major asset managers have begun restricting withdrawals from credit funds.
What's happening:
• In the Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund ($33 billion ) investors requested withdrawals of 14% of assets, but only 7% is allowed — this is the maximum limit.
• In Morgan Stanley's North Haven Private Income Fund (~$8 billion ) redemption requests also exceeded the limit — investors received less than half of the requested funds.
Reason: funds invest in long-term corporate loans that cannot be quickly sold without losses. Pressure is intensi

📉 ETH supply on exchanges at a historic low.
The amount of Ethereum on centralized exchanges continues to decrease. Currently, about 12% of the total ETH supply is on trading platforms — the lowest level in recorded history.
An additional signal is the activity of major players. One of the large wallets recently withdrew around $93 million ETH from Kraken and distributed the funds across two new addresses.
At the same time, the number of Ethereum holders is increasing: over the past few years, the number of non-empty wallets has grown faster than many other major crypto assets.
The decrease

🚨 BlackRock restricts fund withdrawals from the credit fund to $26 billion
One of the world's largest asset managers has faced a sharp outflow of capital from the HPS Corporate Lending Fund, which invests in the private credit market.
• Investors have submitted withdrawal requests for 9.3% of the fund's assets
• Managers have approved only a 5% withdrawal
• Instead of the expected ~$1.2 billion, investors will receive about $620 million
The fund invests in long-term corporate loans. Such assets cannot be quickly sold without significant discounts, so during a sudden outflow of funds, funds

Bitcoin on the Edge: Market in Extreme Fear, but Aggressive Buying Has Begun
Sharp Increase in BTC Purchases
Immediately after the US market opened, the volume of market buy orders for Bitcoin on exchanges reached $121.6 million.
This indicates aggressive market demand, where participants are willing to buy at the current price without waiting for a pullback.
Extreme Fear in the Market
According to Glassnode, the market is in a state of extreme fear.
A strong asymmetry is observed:
• skewed towards put options,
• high trading volume,
• increased open interest.
Such conditions have historica

USDT.D according to RSI, we are still in the upper zone, and the movement has not been broken. We saw a reaction after yesterday's fixation; closely monitor the distribution of USDT in the market and do not wait for anyone's warm words, only facts and reactions to levels.
‍#usdtd #bitcoin $BTC $ETH

The Court Ordered the US to Pay: The Court Strikes a Blow to US Tariff Policy
The market received an important macro signal that many are underestimating.
According to Bloomberg, Trump's administration's attempt to delay the resolution of trade tariff compensation failed.
The court denied the US time to find bypass solutions.
📉 What does this mean in simple terms
Now the process looks like this:
▪️ The US is obliged to move towards restoring damages caused by tariffs
▪️ Delaying the process is prohibited
▪️ Pressure on trade policy is increasing
In fact — the legal system limits the ability t

Global debt has exploded to $348 trillion — why this is a key signal for BTC
Recent data from The Kobeissi Letter reveal what the market almost doesn't talk about — the global financial system is rapidly moving into debt dependence.
And this is directly related to the future of the crypto market.
🌍 What happened
In 2025, global debt increased by +$29 trillion —
the largest annual growth since the pandemic of 2020.
📊 Total global debt: $348 trillion ( all-time high)
Growth structure:
▪️ Governments: +$10 trillion
▪️ 75% of the growth — USA, China, and the Eurozone
▪️ Global government deb

#FOMC‬⁩ #CPI #USACryptoTrends $BTC $GT
We have released some of the most important macro data for all markets — PPI (producer inflation). And the numbers turned out worse than expected. Let’s analyze what this means for crypto, the stock market, and BTC.
📊 Actual PPI data (January) Producer Price Index (YoY):▪️ Actual: 2.9%▪️ Forecast: 2.6%▪️ Previous: 3.0%PPI (MoM):▪️ Actual: 0.5%▪️ Forecast: 0.3%Core PPI (MoM):▪️ Actual: 0.8%▪️ Forecast: 0.3% ⚠️Core PPI (YoY):▪️ Actual: 3.6%▪️ Forecast: 3.0%
👉 The main issue — core inflation is significantly higher than expectations.⚠️ Why this is critic

⚠️ THE MARKET HAS CLEARED OUT THE SHAKERS. 99% OF NEW INVESTORS ARE IN LOSS — WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR BTC
Currently, one of the most important phases of the cycle is forming, which most participants misunderstand.
Let's analyze the facts.
📉 1️⃣ Massive Margin Cleansing
Current BTC Open Interest: $44.8 billion
This is approximately –55% from the October 2025 peak.
What does this mean:
✅ The market is shedding overloaded leverage
✅ The number of forced liquidations is decreasing
✅ Price is once again starting to depend on real spot demand
Historically:
Major drops in Open Interest almost always