Traders Cut Fed Rate-Hike Odds to 60% from 80% on Iran Peace Deal, U.S. Debt Rallies June 15

According to Jin10, on June 15, traders cut expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike within December to approximately 60% from about 80% the prior week, following an agreement to end the Iran conflict. U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities fell, with short-term bonds—most sensitive to policy shifts—posting the largest declines. Interest rate swaps reflected the shift in investor sentiment toward lower borrowing costs as markets anticipate resolution of the Iran crisis could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease oil prices.
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