Fed Rate Hike Probability Falls to 59.4% by Year-End, CME FedWatch Data Shows

According to CME FedWatch data, on June 13, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged through December stood at 39.6%, while the likelihood of rate cuts totaling 25 basis points remained minimal at only 1%.

The probability of rate hikes within 2026 declined to 59.4%, comprised of: 25 basis points cumulative increase at 42.3%, 50 basis points at 14.9%, 75 basis points at 2.1%, and 100 basis points at 0.1%.