Standard Chartered is maintaining its end-2026 bitcoin price forecast of $100,000, with Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, arguing that recent weakness driven by Strategy Inc. reflects a failure to explain a strategic shift rather than any deterioration in the company's balance sheet. Strategy, which owns 843,775 bitcoins — more than 4% of the 21 million BTC supply that will ever exist — appears to be moving away from its 'never sell bitcoin' mantra toward a more complex approach using bitcoin as backing for STRC, its perpetual preferred stock. The company announced on June 1 that it had sold 32 BTC the previous week, and last week sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million, its largest disposal to date. Kendrick opined that clear communication of that pivot will determine how quickly the pressure on bitcoin lifts, treating the episode as noise rather than a signal about bitcoin's medium-term direction.
Standard Chartered Maintains $100,000 Bitcoin Target for End-2026
Standard Chartered is maintaining its end-2026 bitcoin price forecast of $100,000. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, wrote in a note shared with The Block on Friday that Strategy's actions are muddying bitcoin's near-term prospects. Kendrick argued that the company's recent weakness reflects a communication failure around a strategic shift rather than any deterioration in its balance sheet. At $64,000, Kendrick calls the coin "a screaming buy." Bitcoin was trading above $64,300 on Friday.
Strategy Pivots from Accumulation Vehicle to Credit Backing Model
Strategy owns 843,775 bitcoins, more than 4% of the 21 million BTC supply that will ever exist. Between 2020 and mid-2025, the company's mNAV — enterprise value divided by the value of its bitcoin holdings — traded well above 1.0, letting Strategy issue shares, buy bitcoin, and increase its own value by more than the value of the newly issued stock. Convincing the market it would never sell was the load-bearing part of that model. With mNAV now around 1.0, that arithmetic no longer works. Kendrick noted that Strategy is instead pivoting toward holding bitcoin as backing for STRC, its perpetual preferred stock, which functions as a credit product.
STRC Preferred Stock Trades Below Par Amid Feedback Loop
Strategy's STRC pays a 12% annual dividend, settled semi-monthly in cash, with the rate adjusted monthly to incentivize the security trading near its $100 par value. It has around $10 billion notional outstanding, making it the largest of the financial instruments Strategy has deployed. A negative feedback loop between Strategy's actions and bitcoin prices took hold once STRC broke sharply from par, hitting an intraday low of $71.25 on June 26. That divergence began after the June 1 announcement that Strategy had sold 32 BTC the previous week. The market has yet to be convinced, with STRC still trading around $90, according to Standard Chartered. The USD reserve held to pay STRC dividends stands at $2.55 billion, equal to 17.4 months of coverage. Given its bitcoin backing, STRC is heavily overcollateralized and should trade back toward $100, the note argued.
Strategy Sells 3,588 BTC for $216 Million to Fund Reserve
Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million last week, its largest disposal to date, using the proceeds to fund preferred stock distributions and replenish the reserve. The company has announced a monetization program allowing it to sell bitcoin from time to time, including to generate up to $1.25 billion in proceeds for the reserve. Kendrick wrote that effective signaling of the new arrangement should remove the need for Strategy to sell any bitcoin at all, by supporting STRC's price. He compared the mechanism to a central bank promising to do "whatever it takes" and, through credibility alone, never having to act. JPMorgan analysts said the formalization of the sale policy introduces "avoidable two-way risk" into crypto markets by making Strategy both a buyer and a seller. Grayscale head of research Zach Pandl took the opposite view, arguing that the sales strengthen the balance sheet and help bitcoin find a more durable bottom. Strategy's stock closed Thursday at about $93, according to The Block's MSTR price page.
FAQ
What is Standard Chartered's bitcoin price target for end-2026?
Standard Chartered is maintaining its end-2026 bitcoin price forecast of $100,000. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, argues that recent weakness reflects a communication failure around Strategy Inc.'s strategic shift rather than any balance sheet deterioration.
How much bitcoin does Strategy own?
Strategy owns 843,775 bitcoins, representing more than 4% of the 21 million BTC supply that will ever exist. The company is pivoting from a "never sell" model to holding bitcoin as backing for STRC, its perpetual preferred stock.
What did Strategy sell last week and why?
Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million last week, its largest disposal to date. The proceeds were used to fund preferred stock distributions and replenish the USD reserve held to pay STRC dividends, which stands at $2.55 billion.
