Bitcoin traded near $61,800 on July 8, roughly 51% below its October 2025 record above $126,000, as major research desks diverged on whether the cycle low has already formed. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick told clients the cycle bottomed at about $59,000 on June 5 and maintained a $100,000 year-end target, citing corporate treasury buying and spot ETF flows as new demand sources. Galaxy Research's base case puts the low between $40,000 and $46,000 before the fourth quarter of 2026, noting only four of 13 historical bottom indicators have triggered and that past bottoms formed 12 to 13 months after cycle peaks. Citi lowered its 12-month target to $82,000 from $112,000 on July 1, dropping its assumption of $10 billion in ETF net inflows to zero after about $4 billion of June outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the products' worst month on record. The current drawdown compares with declines of 77% to 85% in earlier cycles, and analysts cited Bitcoin's lower valuation multiple at the peak as a factor in floor estimates.
Standard Chartered Maintains $100,000 Year-End Target After June 5 Bottom
Standard Chartered Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoffrey Kendrick told clients in mid-June that Bitcoin likely bottomed at about $59,000 on June 5. The bank kept its $100,000 year-end target. Kendrick pointed to corporate treasury buying and spot ETF flows as demand sources that did not exist in past downturns. He noted fund holdings slipped only from 682,000 BTC to about 674,000 BTC through the drawdown. "That tells me the ETF structure is stronger than I feared back in the winter," Kendrick wrote.
Galaxy Research Forecasts $40,000–$46,000 Low Before Q4 2026
Galaxy Research's base case puts the cycle low between $40,000 and $46,000 before the fourth quarter of 2026. The firm said only four of 13 historical bottom indicators have triggered so far. Past bottoms formed about 12 to 13 months after cycle peaks, a pattern pointing to late 2026, Galaxy noted. The firm also noted the current drawdown of about 51% compares with declines of 77% to 85% in earlier cycles. Galaxy said Bitcoin's lower valuation multiple at the peak raises the likely floor this time.
Citi Cuts 12-Month Target to $82,000 on ETF Outflow Data
Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin target to $82,000 from $112,000 on July 1, its second cut this year. The bank dropped its assumption of $10 billion in ETF net inflows over the coming year to zero. Citi analysts flagged about $4 billion of June outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, the products' worst month on record.
FAQ
What did Standard Chartered say about Bitcoin's cycle low on June 5?
Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick told clients in mid-June that Bitcoin likely bottomed at about $59,000 on June 5, citing corporate treasury buying and spot ETF flows as new demand sources that did not exist in past downturns.
Why does Galaxy Research expect Bitcoin to fall to $40,000–$46,000 before Q4 2026?
Galaxy Research said only four of 13 historical bottom indicators have triggered so far, and past bottoms formed about 12 to 13 months after cycle peaks, a pattern pointing to late 2026. The firm noted the current 51% drawdown compares with 77% to 85% declines in earlier cycles.
