Bitcoin is trading in a deep value zone but has not yet confirmed a market bottom, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode. After experiencing sharp corrections in June that pushed BTC below $60,000, the cryptocurrency recovered from lows around $57,000 to levels near $64,000 and is currently trading around $62,500. Glassnode's weekly report states that Bitcoin has been trading below two key averages—the Real Market Average of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost floor of $72,200—for approximately five months. The analysis indicates that while Bitcoin is positioned in a region suitable for bottom formation, sustained recovery signals have not yet emerged.
Bitcoin Trades Below Key Averages for Five Months
Glassnode's "The Week On-Chain" report identifies that Bitcoin has been trading below the Real Market Average of $76,600 and the cost floor for short-term holders of $72,200 for approximately five months. Analysts state this keeps Bitcoin in a deep value zone, indicating that a confirmed bottom has not yet formed. The data suggests Bitcoin is in a region suitable for bottom formation, but a sustained recovery has not yet begun.
Long-Term Investor Sell-Offs Account for 43% of Market Losses
Glassnode analysts found that long-term investor sell-offs accounted for approximately 43 percent of total sell-offs and profits in the market. Analysts note that a gradual decrease in loss-taking by long-term investors could be a positive development for Bitcoin.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Outflows Decrease to $88.9 Million Daily
Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have decreased from $193 million per day to $88.9 million. While outflows have slowed, net outflows and a negative trend still persist. Daily ETF trading volume ranges between $650 million and $950 million. Analysts note this figure is approximately 80% below the October 2025 peak, indicating that institutional investor interest has not yet strongly recovered.
Options Market Put/Call Ratio Falls to 0.56
According to Glassnode data, investors in derivative markets have begun to take slightly positive positions. The put/call ratio in the options market has fallen to 0.56, its lowest level since 2026, indicating a decrease in demand for short positions. However, the Bitcoin price is trading below the "maximum pain" level, where investors in the options market would face the highest possible loss, suggesting that a cautious approach continues in the market.
Glassnode Identifies Four Conditions for Bottom Confirmation
Glassnode concludes that there are signs Bitcoin is approaching the final stages of its bear cycle. However, while Bitcoin has the necessary groundwork for a bottom formation at current levels, strong signals indicating the start of a new uptrend have not yet emerged. For bottom confirmation and sustained recovery, Glassnode states that "improvement in investor confidence, further reduction in selling pressure from long-term investors, stabilization of spot ETF inflows, and BTC price rising above and maintaining its level compared to the true market average" are needed.
FAQ
What price levels is Bitcoin currently trading at according to Glassnode?
Bitcoin is currently trading around $62,500 after recovering from lows around $57,000 and reaching levels near $64,000. The cryptocurrency experienced sharp corrections in June that pushed it below $60,000.
What are the key averages Bitcoin has been trading below for five months?
Bitcoin has been trading below the Real Market Average of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost floor of $72,200 for approximately five months, according to Glassnode's analysis.
What percentage of market sell-offs do long-term investors account for?
Glassnode analysts found that long-term investor sell-offs accounted for approximately 43 percent of total sell-offs and profits in the market.
