Gate Research: Geopolitical Shock Pressures Crypto, While Prediction Markets Stay Hot

Summary

• BTC fluctuated downward overall over the past 24 hours, with an intraday low of $74,242 and currently trading at around $74,526. News of military conflict involving Iran triggered a synchronous pullback in risk assets. Combined with a 1-hour MACD bearish crossover and moving-average resistance, short-term volatility expanded significantly.

• ETH underperformed BTC, falling to an intraday low of $2,015, down about 2.54%, with its technical structure entering a more clearly defined correction zone. RSI and CCI have approached/entered oversold territory. Although short-term rebound conditions are present, recovery still depends on BTC stabilizing.

• Market risk appetite remains cautious: more than 60% of TOP100 tokens declined, the Fear & Greed Index is around 38, and the Altcoin Season Index is around 36, indicating that major coins continue to dominate market liquidity while high-beta assets remain under pressure.

• On the funding side, BTC ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of about $1.79 billion over the past week, reflecting stronger institutional defensiveness. However, total cumulative net inflows remain around $106.2 billion, suggesting long-term allocation positions have not been shaken.

• On-chain liquidity remains resilient: total stablecoin supply remains at a high level of around $322.3 billion, while Ethereum mainnet standard Gas Fee continues to stay below 0.15 gwei, indicating that settlement and interaction conditions remain sufficient.

• Structural themes continue to diverge: prediction markets remain highly active, with total volume of about $9.223 billion and 24-hour volume of about $196.6 million. RWA and AI-related sectors continue to attract independent capital attention. Over the next 7 days, around $53.21 million worth of token unlocks are expected, with SUI, EIGEN, and KMNO as key assets to monitor.

Market Overview

Market Commentary

• BTC Market Update — BTC trended downward overall over the past 24 hours, reaching an intraday high of $76,162.6 and falling to a low of $74,242.3. It is currently quoted at $74,526.5, down 1.98%. During the Asian session, the price fluctuated within the $76,600–$77,400 range. After the European session opened, the decline accelerated. In the early hours of the U.S. Eastern session, news of the Iranian military conflict triggered panic selling, with about $160 million liquidated across the network within 4 hours, and long positions accounting for more than 94%. The current price has fallen below the MA10/MA20/MA50 lines and is only slightly above the MA5. A bearish moving-average alignment has basically formed, with dense resistance from moving averages above, making the technical outlook bearish. The 1H MACD bearish crossover has been confirmed, with negative bars continuing to expand and medium-term momentum weakening significantly. RSI(14) is around 36–40, close to oversold territory but not yet reaching it. ADX is around 27, indicating that the downtrend has entered an effective bearish phase. BTC ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of about $1.79 billion over the past week, showing clear institutional selling pressure. Total cumulative net inflows are around $106.2 billion, indicating stable long-term core holdings. The near-term strong support level is $74,000, while resistance is around $75,500 near the MA20.

• ETH Market Update — ETH declined more than BTC over the past 24 hours, reaching an intraday high of $2,097.08 and a low of $2,015.84. It is currently quoted at $2,027.64, down 2.54%. During the Asian session, ETH remained relatively stable within the $2,085–$2,130 range. During the U.S. session, it quickly moved lower under BTC’s drag, briefly falling below $2,020, with intraday trading volume expanding significantly. The current price has fallen below MA10/MA20/MA50 and is only slightly above MA5, forming a bearish alignment. The 1H MACD bearish crossover has been confirmed, with negative bars widening and short-term momentum remaining weak. RSI(14) is around 32–38, closer to oversold territory than BTC, increasing the probability of a short-term rebound. ADX is around 28, indicating a clear downtrend. CCI is around -120, in oversold territory. ETH’s RSI is approaching oversold territory, and if BTC stabilizes, ETH may be among the first to see a technical rebound.

• Altcoins — The overall crypto market performed weakly over the past 24 hours, with more than 60% of TOP100 tokens declining. The current Fear & Greed Index is around 38, still not entering a clearly optimistic range. The Altcoin Season Index is around 36, indicating that major coins still occupy the main market liquidity.

• Stablecoins — Total stablecoin supply remains at a high level of around $322.3 billion. The on-chain dollar liquidity “reservoir” remains sufficient, though no significant growth has appeared.

• Gas Fees — Ethereum mainnet Gas remains at historically extremely low levels, with standard Gas Fee staying below 0.15 gwei. On-chain interaction costs remain extremely low.

Trending Tokens

Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market moved broadly lower, with approximately 65% of tokens posting declines. Escalating military tensions between the U.S. and Iran sharply intensified risk-off sentiment, causing BTC to plunge first and drag the broader market downward. Among trending sectors, the AI & Big Data category delivered the strongest performance, with certain projects such as BDX (Beldex) surging more than 37%. The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 38, indicating that market sentiment remains firmly in the “Fear” zone. Although some AI infrastructure tokens have rebounded from lows, overall market positioning remains highly cautious.

POLS (Polkastarter) (+20.41%, circulating market cap: $10.82M)

According to Gate market data, POLS is currently trading at $0.09313, up 20.41% over the past 24 hours, with an intraday high of $0.1166 and a low of $0.07324. Polkastarter is a decentralized cross-chain IDO platform focused on the Polkadot ecosystem, providing token issuance and fundraising services for blockchain startups.

The main driver behind today’s sharp rally in POLS is the broader recovery of the Polkadot ecosystem and improving platform activity. Amid overall pressure across the crypto market, small-cap DeFi assets have experienced rotational inflows, with capital shifting from major cryptocurrencies into higher-beta small- and mid-cap tokens. Polkastarter recently announced partnerships with several cross-chain projects, while upcoming IDO launches have attracted market attention. Trading volume also expanded significantly, with 24-hour turnover reaching approximately $815,000, highlighting strong speculative sentiment among short-term traders. However, investors should note that POLS has a circulating market cap of only around $10.82 million, classifying it as an ultra-small-cap asset with extremely high volatility. Risk management remains critical, especially against the possibility of sharp pullbacks after rapid rallies.

BEAT (Audiera) (+18.34%, circulating market cap: $167M)

According to Gate market data, BEAT is currently trading at $1.2129, up 18.34% over the past 24 hours, with an intraday high of $1.2788 and a low of $1.0143. Audiera (BEAT) is a Web3 platform focused on the music and creator economy, leveraging blockchain technology to help musicians capture a larger share of royalty revenue while enabling fans to participate in revenue-sharing models.

BEAT’s strong performance today was primarily driven by continued momentum in the Web3 music sector. The recent convergence of AI and the creator economy has renewed market interest in decentralized music copyright platforms, while several traditional music companies are reportedly exploring partnerships with blockchain projects. On the same day, Robinhood announced the launch of AI-agent trading accounts, further strengthening market expectations surrounding the AI + creator economy narrative. On-chain data also shows that the number of BEAT holding addresses has continued to rise recently, alongside growing institutional participation. Investors may closely monitor the $1.20 resistance level, as a confirmed breakout could open further upside potential.

BDX (Beldex) (+37.46%, circulating market cap: $608M)

According to Gate market data, BDX is currently trading at $0.44402, up 37.46% over the past 24 hours. Beldex is a leading privacy-focused ecosystem that provides private communication and browsing experiences through decentralized applications (dApps) such as BChat, BelNet, and the Beldex Browser.

The rally in BDX has mainly been driven by optimism surrounding its recent mainnet upgrade and the growing importance of privacy narratives in the AI era. As a long-established project within the privacy sector, BDX demonstrated exceptional resilience and an independent trend despite broader market weakness today. Trading volume expanded significantly, suggesting signs of large-scale accumulation by major investors at lower price levels.

Key Market Data Highlights

The AI Transformation Boom Among Bitcoin Mining Firms Continues to Intensify, as Cipher and Hut 8 Shares Hit Record Highs

On May 28, 2026, the wave of traditional Bitcoin mining companies transitioning toward AI infrastructure further accelerated. Several mining-related stocks posted double-digit gains: IREN led the sector on Wednesday with a surge of more than 13%, moving closer to record highs, while Cipher Digital (CIFR) and Hut 8 (HUT) both reached new all-time highs. This marks a continuation of a trend that has developed over recent months — companies once focused primarily on Bitcoin mining are increasingly shutting down portions of their mining operations and reallocating resources and capital toward AI power and computing infrastructure.

On the same day, AI coding startup Cognition completed a $1 billion funding round at a valuation of $26 billion, further reinforcing market optimism surrounding the long-term prospects of the AI + compute infrastructure sector.

The logic behind Bitcoin miners’ AI transformation is becoming increasingly clear: mining difficulty continues to rise while block rewards keep halving, compressing the profitability of pure mining operations. At the same time, explosive demand for AI large-model computing power and electricity has created new monetization opportunities for miners’ low-cost power resources and existing computing infrastructure.

For the crypto market, miners’ transition toward AI could reduce sell-side BTC pressure while improving valuation frameworks for mining-related equities, helping strengthen long-term supply-side expectations for Bitcoin. Investors may focus on mining companies with large-scale power resources and data center infrastructure, as well as representative decentralized storage and computing assets such as AR and ICP.

Trump Strongly Endorses the Crypto Industry, Announces Plans for a “Future-Oriented” Digital Asset Market Structure Framework

On May 28, 2026, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social using strong language to support the cryptocurrency industry. He directly criticized former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler and the “anti-crypto coalition,” stating that “they nearly destroyed the U.S. crypto industry, driving Bitcoin, perpetual futures, and innovation overseas — but I saved it all.” Trump declared that the United States has now become the “crypto capital of the world” and pledged to establish a “future-oriented” digital asset market structure framework.

On the same day, JPMorgan Chase announced plans to hire a “Global Crypto Research Analyst,” further confirming ongoing institutional expansion into the crypto sector.

Trump’s remarks carry major policy-signaling significance for the crypto market. Clear top-level political support could substantially reduce regulatory uncertainty for institutional participation and accelerate the implementation of future regulatory frameworks. Over the medium to long term, if a “future-oriented” market structure bill progresses successfully, it could create broader opportunities for stablecoin legislation, ETF expansion, and compliant institutional derivatives markets. Investors may pay close attention to compliant crypto infrastructure sectors and crypto-related U.S. equities, while selectively increasing risk appetite during the current policy window.

Blockworks and More Than 40 Crypto Firms Launch “Transparency Alliance” to Standardize Token Disclosure

On May 27, Blockworks officially launched the “Transparency Alliance,” with support from more than 40 crypto companies including Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance.US. The initiative aims to establish unified token disclosure standards to improve market transparency and attract institutional capital.

The framework is based on Blockworks’ Token Transparency Framework and covers key information such as token issuance structures, insider holdings, market-making arrangements, listing terms, and buyback mechanisms. It is divided into two categories: pre-launch disclosures and ongoing disclosure updates. Currently, 44 projects — including Morpho, Jupiter, Spark, and dYdX — have completed filings under the framework.

The emergence of the Transparency Alliance signals that the crypto industry is proactively moving closer to the disclosure standards used in traditional capital markets. Historically, the lack of unified standards surrounding tokenomics, market-making arrangements, and insider holdings has been a major barrier preventing institutional capital from entering the sector. The joint push for standardized disclosure by leading exchanges and projects is effectively laying the groundwork for future ETF expansion, RWA adoption, and on-chain securities infrastructure, while also signaling that the industry is gradually entering a new phase of “compliance-driven competition.”

Focus of the Week

Prediction Markets Remain Hot, Event Trading Becomes an Important Entry Point for Capital Competition

Prediction markets currently have about 89,197 active markets, cumulative total volume of about $9.223 billion, 24-hour volume of about $196.6 million, total open interest of about $1.774 billion, and total liquidity of about $833 million. Overall, prediction markets have not cooled significantly due to short-term volatility in major coins. Instead, they continue to attract trading capital for high-frequency pricing around geopolitical, macro policy, sports, and technology events.

Structurally, hot events are concentrated around “politics + macro + technology releases,” indicating that the market is treating prediction markets as a forward-looking indicator of cross-asset sentiment. On one hand, event contracts provide higher-elasticity expression tools for short-cycle trading. On the other hand, relatively high open interest and liquidity also indicate rising hedging demand against future uncertainty. For the crypto market, this type of capital behavior often reflects risk appetite changes before spot prices do, making it worth continuously tracking as a leading sentiment signal.

Crypto ETF Funds Continue Short-Term Outflows, but AUM Resilience Remains

As of May 27, ETF single-day net flow was about -$149.6 million, with BTC at about -$150 million and ETH nearly flat, showing that institutional positioning remains defensive. Looking back at the 30-day fund flow histogram, net inflows and net outflows have alternated frequently, and negative-flow days have increased recently, indicating that in a period of macro uncertainty, institutional funds prefer tactical rebalancing rather than trend-based accumulation.

However, from the perspective of assets under management, total ETF AUM remains around $119.75 billion, with BTC around $105.95 billion and ETH around $13.8 billion, indicating that core positions have not seen a systemic retreat. In other words, short-term capital pullback reflects more of a contraction in risk budgets rather than a reversal of long-term allocation logic. If macro expectations improve and volatility declines further, ETF flows still have the potential to turn back to net inflows and support a recovery in major coins.

U.S. Stocks Fluctuate at High Levels, VIX Pulls Back, Risk Assets Enter a “Mild Risk-On” Window

On a weekly basis, core U.S. equity indices generally remained in high-level consolidation: the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq rose slightly, reflecting resilient risk appetite. Meanwhile, the VIX fell to around 16.29, down more than 4% for the week, showing that short-term risk-aversion premiums have declined. Correspondingly, the U.S. Dollar Index strengthened mildly to around 99.31, indicating that the current environment is not a one-sided “liquidity easing trade,” but more like a balanced state where risk assets and defensive assets are being priced simultaneously.

For the crypto market, this macro combination usually corresponds to an environment where “direction is uncertain but volatility is tradable.” On one hand, stable equities and declining volatility are favorable for repairing risk-asset sentiment. On the other hand, the resilience of the U.S. dollar limits the broad expansion of high-beta assets. Therefore, the short term is more likely to continue structural rotation and event-driven moves rather than indiscriminate broad rallies. If U.S. equities continue to stabilize and ETF outflows narrow, the recovery slope for major coins and high-quality thematic assets may further improve.

Funding Weekly Recap

According to RootData, from May 21, 2026 to May 28, 2026, a total of 17 crypto and related projects announced completed financing or M&A transactions, covering trading platforms, prediction markets, institutional trading services, and other directions. By financing size, the top three projects this week were Dunamu, Kalshi, and SignalPlus. Brief introductions are as follows:

Dunamu

Disclosed on May 28 that it had completed $204 million in financing, with a valuation of about $10.19 billion.

In the current market environment, continued financing and high valuations for leading platform companies reflect capital’s continued strong confidence in their user networks, trading depth, and compliance operating capabilities. Such financing is usually used not only to expand business boundaries, but also to strengthen institutional services and cross-market collaboration capabilities, allowing companies to maintain leadership as industry competition enters a phase of stock optimization.

Kalshi

Disclosed on May 21 that it had completed $200 million in financing, with a valuation of about $22 billion. Investors included Baillie Gifford and Layer Global.

This financing round highlights the continued rise in capital attention toward the prediction market sector. As volatility around macro, policy, and geopolitical events increases, the value of event contracts as “probability pricing tools” has been further amplified. Kalshi’s large financing support shows that institutions are accelerating deployment in new market infrastructure centered on “information tradability and risk hedging.”

SignalPlus

Disclosed on May 21 that it had completed $40 million in strategic financing, with HashKey Capital as the investor.

The strategic financing nature suggests that the funds are more likely to be used for medium- to long-term capability building, potentially focusing on institutional trading tools, risk-control systems, and deeper derivatives services. Against the backdrop of normalized volatility, infrastructure serving professional traders is becoming more valuable, and platforms with product completeness and institutional connectivity are more likely to gain capital favor.

Next Week to Watch

Token Unlocks

According to Tokenomist data, over the next 7 days (2026-05-29 to 2026-06-03), the market will see about $53.21 million worth of token unlocks. Overall short-term pressure has eased slightly compared with previous market concerns, but certain projects remain worth focused attention. The top 3 unlocks are as follows:

• SUI will unlock about $13.78 million worth of tokens over the next 7 days, accounting for 0.4% of circulating supply.

• EIGEN will unlock about $8.40 million worth of tokens over the next 7 days, accounting for 5.0% of circulating supply.

• KMNO will unlock about $4.37 million worth of tokens over the next 7 days, accounting for 4.9% of circulating supply.

References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT

• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data

• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap

• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories

• DefiLlama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins

• Etherscan, https://etherscan.io/gastracker

• Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising

• Tokenomist, https://tokenomist.ai/

• Jinse, https://www.jinse2.com/lives/510619.html

• Odaily, https://www.odaily.news/zh-CN/newsflash/478761

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