Gate Research: Crypto market remains in a weak recovery phase, Fed June rate cut expectations near zero

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2026-05-27 09:36:06
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Last Updated 2026-05-28 08:41:18
Gate Research Daily Report: Over the past 24 hours, BTC has remained in a weak recovery phase following a sharp rally and pullback, while ETH continued retreating from around $2,090, showing weaker momentum than in the previous upward move. ZEST surged more than 649% after being added to the Alpha listing of a major centralized exchange, while EDEN and PROMPT benefited from continued momentum in the RWA and AI Agent narratives, attracting strong trading volume despite relatively low liquidity conditions. Trump expressed support for CFTC regulation of prediction markets and pledged to maintain the U.S. as the “crypto capital of the world”; meanwhile, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June has risen to 97.3%, with rate-cut expectations nearly disappearing. OpenSea also launched the Ethereum open standard ERC-8257, positioning it as an “App Store for AI Agent tools.”

Crypto Market Overview

  • BTC (-0.9% | current price: $75,956.0): Over the past 24 hours, BTC first surged to a high of $76,638 before quickly pulling back. It then oscillated repeatedly between $75,700 and $76,100, indicating a weak recovery phase after the recent rejection from higher levels. Technically, the MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50 are in a bearish alignment, with price remaining below both EMA20 and EMA50. MACD continues to show a death cross, with negative histogram bars that are gradually shrinking, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands place price below the mid-band, hovering in the lower half but not yet touching the lower band. Trading volume over the past 24 hours increased by approximately 154.6% compared to the previous day, reflecting a volume-expansion sell-off followed by consolidation. Overall, the structure remains short-term bearish, but downside momentum is marginally easing. In terms of options strategy, the $75,000 put is currently delivering hedging value; if BTC decisively breaks below $75,000, positioning should quickly shift to the June $70,000–$72,000 put protection zone. For long entry on the right side, it is still necessary to wait for macro catalysts such as Waller’s first speech to clarify direction.

  • ETH (-0.6% | current price: $2,075.9): Over the past 24 hours, ETH has continued to decline from the $2,090 level, bottoming at $2,074 before a mild rebound. It has underperformed relative to its previous upward momentum phase. Technically, MA5, MA10, MA20, and MA50 are also in bearish alignment, with price trading below EMA20 and EMA50. MACD remains in a death cross, though the negative histogram is narrowing, indicating slowing downside momentum. Bollinger Bands show price below the mid-band, still in a relatively weak regime. Trading volume increased by about 71.2% over the past 24 hours, suggesting active turnover during the decline. Overall, ETH remains short-term bearish with easing downside momentum. The current options strategy remains defensive: since the $2,100 support has just been broken, selling the $2,000 put is not appropriate at this stage. A more suitable approach is holding June-expiry $2,000 puts as downside protection; if ETH breaks below $2,000, the next support area may extend toward $1,800. However, structurally, open interest in June calls remains elevated at around 470,000 contracts, indicating institutional longs have not exited. If geopolitical and macro stress eases, ETH—being a high-beta asset—still retains strong rebound potential.

  • Altcoins: Over the past 24 hours, the altcoin market has broadly followed majors with a structurally weak performance, with around 66.22% of tokens declining. Among sectors, DePIN and AI stood out as the strongest performers, with tokens such as POND, WLD, DRIFT, and ZEST posting an average gain of 4.25%, while some individual names like POND (Marlin) surged by more than 50%. The current Fear & Greed Index stands at 39, indicating that market sentiment remains in the “fear” zone. Despite strength in selected AI infrastructure tokens, overall market sentiment remains highly cautious.

  • Macro: On May 26, S&P 500 up 0.61%, closing at 7,519.12; Dow Jones down 0.23%, closing at 50,461.68; Nasdaq up 1.19%, closing at 26,656.18.As of May 27, 02:19 AM (UTC), spot gold is trading at 4,502.50 USD per ounce, down 0.46% within 24H.

POND (Marlin) (+50.31%, circulating market cap: $22.5M)

According to Gate market data, POND is currently trading at $0.002148, up 50.31% over the past 24 hours. Marlin is a protocol providing high-performance infrastructure for decentralized networks. Through its Oyster protocol, it offers trusted execution environments (TEE) and accelerated node services.

The sharp rally in POND is mainly driven by spillover demand for AI computing power and the resurgence of the DePIN narrative. Recently, Marlin announced the integration of new AI inference acceleration capabilities into its Oyster protocol, attracting significant capital inflows seeking AI infrastructure exposure. The 24-hour trading volume exceeded $38 million, far surpassing its circulating market cap.

WLD (Worldcoin) (+32.11%, circulating market cap: $1.35B)

According to Gate market data, WLD is currently trading at $0.3986, up 32.11% over the past 24 hours. Worldcoin is a cryptocurrency project founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, aiming to build the world’s largest identity and financial network through biometric verification (Orb) technology.

The rise in WLD is mainly driven by the overall strength in AI-related assets and market expectations surrounding the upcoming launch of the World Chain mainnet. Despite the broader market weakness, WLD—作为 the leading token in the AI sector—has rebounded from lows on high volume, showing signs of institutional support and retail momentum.

DRIFT (Drift Protocol) (+22.62%, circulating market cap: $26.82M)

According to Gate market data, DRIFT is currently trading at $0.04195, up 22.62% over the past 24 hours. Drift Protocol is a leading decentralized derivatives trading platform in the Solana ecosystem, offering cross-margin trading, lending, and yield enhancement services.

The price increase is driven by the recent launch of its “prediction market” feature and ongoing trading incentive programs. Amid a recovery in Solana ecosystem activity, Drift has attracted significant on-chain traders thanks to its strong product experience and continued liquidity mining rewards. Trading volume also expanded notably over the past 24 hours.

Alpha Insights

Trump: supports CFTC oversight of prediction markets, vows to maintain U.S. “crypto capital” status

On May 27, President Trump explicitly stated support for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) having exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets, emphasizing that the U.S. must remain the world’s leading crypto capital. He noted that the forthcoming “rules of the road” will serve as a gold standard for the industry, preventing other countries from overtaking the U.S. He also praised current CFTC Chair Mike Selig for his work.

Trump’s remarks provide clear regulatory direction for prediction markets (such as Polymarket). Unified oversight under the CFTC helps eliminate regulatory fragmentation across states and provides a compliant foundation for crypto financial innovation. This reinforces the administration’s strong pro-crypto stance and represents a long-term structural positive. Such high-level competitive signaling is likely to attract more traditional capital into crypto through compliant channels.

Fed: probability of June rate hold rises to 97.3%, rate cut expectations nearly eliminated

According to the latest CME “Fed Watch” data, the market assigns a 97.3% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June, with only a 2.7% chance of a 25bp hike. Rate cuts are now fully priced out of short-term expectations.

This reflects a complete market acceptance of a “higher-for-longer” rate regime. Amid volatile energy prices and unresolved geopolitical risks, the Fed has little incentive to cut rates. For crypto markets, this implies that liquidity-driven tailwinds are unlikely in the near term. The market will need to rely on sector-specific innovation (such as AI narratives or continued ETF inflows) to support valuations.

OpenSea introduces Ethereum standard ERC-8257, positioning itself as an “app store for AI agent tools”

On May 27, OpenSea announced the launch of ERC-8257 (Agent Tool Registry), an Ethereum open standard designed as an “app store for AI agent tools.” It allows developers to register tools on-chain, define access rules and pricing, and enables AI agents to autonomously discover, purchase access, and invoke tools without human intervention.

OpenSea stated that ERC-8257, combined with ERC-8004 (agent identity), MCP (tool discovery), and x402 (payment protocol), forms a layered infrastructure stack for AI agent on-chain operations. The standard is currently in draft stage, and OpenSea is inviting developers to contribute to its development.

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Author: Akane
Reviewer(s): Puffy, Kieran
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