Gate Research: Crypto ETF Outflows Persist as Citi Cuts 12-Month BTC and ETH Price Targets

Summary

• BTC staged an intraday rebound after touching a low of around 58,163 USDT and later recovered to a high of 61,324 USDT, posting a 24-hour gain of 2.46%.

• Over the past 24 hours, the top gainers were concentrated in AI creation platforms, Layer 2 scaling, decentralized infrastructure, and high-beta small and mid-cap tokens, with NFP, TAIKO, and POND leading the board.

• Citi lowered its 12-month price targets for BTC and ETH, while negative ETF flow momentum continued to weigh on market risk appetite.

• Crypto ETF assets under management account for about 6.84% of total crypto market capitalization. Although short-term flows have remained negative, overall AUM is still elevated, and ETFs remain a key institutional access channel.

• This week’s funding activity spanned crypto trading platforms, AI infrastructure, and on-chain data networks. On June 25, Bitbank disclosed a $289 million M&A transaction with SBI Holdings as the acquirer.

• Over the next 7 days, the market is expected to see roughly $642.51 million in token unlocks, marking a larger overall unlock size than the previous week.

Market Commentary

• BTC Market — BTC staged an intraday rebound after touching a low of around 58,163 USDT and later recovered to a high of 61,324 USDT, posting a 24-hour gain of 2.46%. Price has returned to around 60,000 USDT, but it is still trading within the recent wide consolidation range and has not yet fully reversed the prior downtrend. On the 1-hour chart, the MA structure shows visible repair, although price has not clearly broken free from medium-term moving-average resistance. The bearish relationship between EMA12 and EMA26 has eased, the gap between the two lines has narrowed, and short-term rebound momentum has improved from the previous day. On MACD, both DIF and Signal remain in relatively weak territory, but the histogram has improved at the margin, indicating that bearish momentum is fading. On Bollinger Bands, price rebounded from the lower band area to near the upper band, while bandwidth remains elevated after its prior expansion. Support is near 58,000 USDT, and if that zone holds, bulls may continue to watch the 62,000 USDT area.

• ETH Market — ETH also staged an intraday rebound, recovering from a low of 1,560 USDT to a high of 1,646 USDT, for a 24-hour gain of 2.54%. ETH has moved back above 1,600 USDT, but it remains in a repair phase after the earlier decline. In terms of MA structure, short-term moving averages have started to improve, but the broader setup has not yet fully shifted into a bullish alignment, and price still faces resistance near medium-term moving averages. The gap between EMA12 and EMA26 has narrowed, and if price can remain above 1,600 USDT, the short-term average structure may continue to improve. On MACD, DIF and Signal remain in relatively weak territory, but the improving histogram points to a marginal rebound in near-term momentum. On Bollinger Bands, price has rebounded from near the lower band toward the middle band, while short-term volatility has not yet fully contracted. Support is near 1,570 USDT, with resistance around 1,638 USDT and 1,675 USDT.

• Altcoins — The broader crypto market has moved higher overall, with major tokens and most altcoins rebounding in the same direction. The Altcoin Season Index currently stands at about 49, indicating that the market has not yet entered a typical phase of broad altcoin leadership.

• Stablecoins — Total stablecoin supply has fallen to about $307.3 billion, but the on-chain dollar liquidity reservoir remains ample, continuing to provide settlement depth for both spot and derivatives markets.

• Gas Fees — Ethereum mainnet gas remains near historical lows, generally below 0.1 Gwei, keeping on-chain interaction costs extremely low.

Trending Tokens

Over the past 24 hours, top gainers were concentrated in AI creation platforms, Layer 2 scaling, decentralized infrastructure, and high-beta small and mid-cap tokens, with NFP, TAIKO, and POND among the leaders. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 19 today, still in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Market sentiment has improved slightly from yesterday, but remains deeply cautious, suggesting that the rebound in major assets has not yet fully restored broader risk appetite.

NFP NFPrompt (+441.5%, Circulating Market Cap $25.51 million)

According to Gate market data, NFP is now trading at 0.025300 USDT, up 441.5% over the past 24 hours. NFPrompt is an AI-driven Web3 creator platform that combines AI creation, social community features, and content monetization, with the NFP token used for ecosystem incentives and governance.

As the AI narrative has recently recovered and trading interest in high-beta small-cap tokens has accelerated, NFP’s volume expanded sharply. Its 24-hour trading volume reached $428.7 million, driving a rapid surge in price.

TAIKO Taiko (+672.56%, Circulating Market Cap $87.98 million)

According to Gate market data, TAIKO is now trading at 0.61645 USDT, up 672.56% over the past 24 hours. Taiko aims to become an Ethereum-based scaling solution, offering developers and users a default Ethereum expansion path with the most convenient onboarding experience possible without compromising security.

TAIKO belongs to the Ethereum Layer 2 scaling sector. Recent recovery in Layer 2 and broader Ethereum ecosystem assets, combined with short-term capital chasing high-elasticity names, helped push TAIKO sharply higher. Its 24-hour trading volume reached $103.1 million.

POND Marlin (+68.85%, Circulating Market Cap $16.20 million)

According to Gate market data, POND is now trading at 0.0015473 USDT, up 68.85% over the past 24 hours. Marlin is a decentralized infrastructure protocol focused on verifiable computing, high-performance off-chain computing, and decentralized cloud resources.

As the market has paid more attention to Web3 infrastructure, TEE, ZK, and verifiable computing, POND has attracted short-term capital interest. Its 24-hour trading volume reached $30.5 million, making it one of the day’s top-performing infrastructure tokens.

Key Data Highlights

Citi Cuts 12-Month BTC and ETH Targets as Negative ETF Flows Weigh on Risk Appetite

On July 1, Reuters reported that Citi lowered its 12-month BTC price target from $112,000 to $82,000 and cut its ETH target from $3,175 to $2,240. Citi also reduced its assumption for net ETF inflows over the next 12 months from $10 billion to zero, citing negative ETF flow momentum, slower progress on U.S. crypto legislation, and potential selling pressure from digital-asset treasury companies. The adjustment shows that traditional financial institutions are shifting their medium-term crypto pricing assumptions from “continuous ETF-driven inflows” toward “waiting for new catalysts.”

From a market-impact perspective, Citi’s lower targets do not mean the long-term trend has been fully invalidated. Rather, they suggest that the crypto market currently lacks a sufficiently strong incremental capital narrative. If BTC ETF outflows continue while AI and semiconductor assets keep attracting risk capital, crypto may remain in a low-valuation, high-volatility, weak-trend environment. In the short term, the key for BTC is not whether it can break higher quickly, but whether the 58,000–60,000 USDT range can establish effective support.

Robinhood Chain Mainnet Goes Live, Launching Tokenized Stocks, Perpetuals, and AI Agent Trading

On July 2, Robinhood officially launched the public mainnet of its proprietary Layer 2 network, Robinhood Chain. Built on the Arbitrum tech stack, the network is positioned as permissionless, AI-native, institution-oriented infrastructure designed specifically for RWAs. Initial ecosystem partners include Uniswap, Pleiades, Alchemy, BitGo, and Chainlink. Through Robinhood Chain, eligible users can trade tokenized stocks 24/7; Robinhood Earn will roll out on-chain lending based on USDG; and Robinhood Wallet will also connect to Lighter perpetual futures trading in selected regions. In addition, Robinhood announced an expanded European perpetuals business, formal entry into the Canadian market, a new capital markets services license in Singapore, and plans to launch Agentic Accounts in the United States to support AI-driven trading and treasury management. Robinhood said the upgrade is intended to connect TradFi and DeFi by integrating equities, crypto assets, RWAs, perpetuals, and AI trading into a unified financial platform.

The launch of Robinhood Chain signals that traditional internet brokerages are moving further toward on-chain financial infrastructure. By simultaneously introducing tokenized stocks, perpetuals, on-chain lending, and AI agents, Robinhood is no longer limited to offering crypto trading alone, but is instead building a full-stack financial ecosystem that spans TradFi and DeFi around a unified account structure. As platforms such as Robinhood and Gate expand from traditional finance and crypto in parallel, competition is likely to shift from individual asset classes toward comprehensive financial infrastructure and user-entry control.

Independent Nonprofit Ethereum Institutional Launches to Accelerate Institutional Adoption Across Ethereum

On July 1, the newly established independent nonprofit Ethereum Institutional announced its official launch, with the goal of accelerating institutional adoption of Ethereum, its Layer 2 networks, applications, and broader ecosystem. The organization describes itself as a neutral interface for banks, asset managers, and financial infrastructure participants, offering unified communication and research support to address the lack of a trusted coordination counterpart for institutions entering the Ethereum ecosystem. Ethereum Institutional said it will focus on five core areas, including institutional communication, ecosystem research, industry-needs analysis, and ecosystem events, with support from ecosystem backers such as Joseph Lubin and core sponsors including BitMine and SharpLink. The group argues that global financial institutions are accelerating their evaluation of tokenized assets, stablecoins, and on-chain market infrastructure, and that Ethereum could become a foundational network for the next generation of institutional finance.

The establishment of Ethereum Institutional marks another step forward in building Ethereum’s institution-facing infrastructure. By creating a unified communication and research platform, it could lower the information and coordination costs for traditional financial institutions entering the Ethereum ecosystem and accelerate the implementation of tokenized assets, stablecoins, and on-chain financial applications. As more banks and asset managers position around RWAs, Ethereum may further reinforce its role as institutional-grade blockchain infrastructure through its mature ecosystem and Layer 2 network stack.

Focus of the Week

Tokenized Asset Market Pulls Back Slightly While Market Concentration Remains High

As of July 2, the total market capitalization of tokenized assets stood at about $10.24 billion, down roughly 5.22% over the past 30 days, while trading volume during the same period was around $1.03 billion, down 6.2% month over month. Overall, after a period of rapid expansion, the tokenized-asset market has entered a phase of adjustment, but its total scale remains stable above $10 billion, showing resilient demand.

From an issuer perspective, Backed Assets still leads with 48.63% market share, while Tether and Paxos account for 22.02% and 16.17%, respectively, leaving the sector highly concentrated among leading issuers. At the underlying network level, Ethereum and Solana account for 51.52% and 44.92% of market share, respectively, showing that tokenized assets still primarily rely on major public-chain ecosystems. Solana’s continued share gain also reflects the growing competitiveness of high-performance chains in real-world asset issuance.

Crypto ETF Outflows Persist This Week as Institutional Positioning Remains Cautious

On July 1, crypto ETFs posted a single-day net outflow of about $76 million, including $58 million from Bitcoin ETFs and $19 million from Ethereum ETFs. Over a longer horizon, net outflows totaled about $499.3 million over the past week and about $537.7 million over the past month, indicating that institutional capital has remained cautious recently and that risk appetite has not yet clearly recovered.

At present, total crypto ETF assets under management are about $95.54 billion, including roughly $81.83 billion in Bitcoin ETFs and about $13.71 billion in Ethereum ETFs. ETF AUM accounts for about 6.84% of total crypto market capitalization. Although short-term fund flows have remained negative, overall AUM is still elevated, and ETFs remain one of the most important institutional channels for crypto exposure. Future flow direction will remain an important signal for shifts in market risk appetite.

Derivative Positioning Remains Elevated as Wait-and-See Sentiment Builds

In the derivatives market, open interest in perpetual contracts currently stands at about $416.05 billion, up 2.61% from the previous period, while futures open interest is around $2.17 billion, up 10.36% sequentially. Overall positioning remains elevated, suggesting that leveraged capital has not yet materially pulled back.

At the same time, derivatives turnover has shown some divergence. Perpetual contract volume is about $798.4 billion, while futures volume is about $37.01 billion. Volmex implied volatility data shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum implied volatility have fallen to 43.75 and 58.91, respectively, down notably from prior levels, indicating that expectations for sharp short-term price swings have eased. Against a relatively calm macro backdrop, the market has entered a consolidation phase characterized by high positioning and lower volatility, although shifts in capital direction may still determine the next trend.

Funding Weekly Recap

According to RootData, between June 25 and July 2, 2026, multiple crypto and related projects announced completed financing rounds or M&A deals, covering crypto trading platforms, AI infrastructure, and on-chain data networks. Below is a brief overview of the week’s largest disclosed deals:

Bitbank

On June 25, Bitbank disclosed a $289 million M&A deal with SBI Holdings as the acquirer.

Bitbank is one of Japan’s leading crypto asset trading platforms. This transaction shows that traditional financial institutions continue to increase their exposure to digital-asset infrastructure. As Japan’s regulatory framework for digital assets becomes more mature, leading financial groups are strengthening their competitiveness in crypto trading, custody, and institutional services by integrating established platforms, further accelerating the convergence of traditional finance and digital assets.

Venice

On July 1, Venice completed a $65 million Series A round at a post-money valuation of $1 billion, with investors including Dragonfly and Coinbase Ventures.

Venice focuses on the intersection of AI and decentralized infrastructure. This financing round shows that capital markets continue to pay close attention to the AI-and-Crypto convergence theme. As on-chain AI applications and intelligent-agent ecosystems continue to develop, related infrastructure projects may become a new growth area, and institutional funding is likely to keep flowing toward teams that combine technological innovation with application potential.

Canopy

On June 25, Canopy completed an $8.5 million seed round, with investors including Fenbushi Capital and Arrington Capital.

Canopy is primarily focused on on-chain infrastructure and developer ecosystems. Its backing from multiple top-tier institutions reflects continued long-term investment interest in foundational tools, development frameworks, and ecosystem infrastructure. As the industry gradually returns to fundamentals, infrastructure remains one of the key sectors for institutional capital deployment.

Next Week to Watch

Token Unlocks

According to Tokenomist data, over the next 7 days (2026-07-03 - 2026-07-09), the market is expected to see about $642.51 million in token unlocks, up from the previous week. Certain individual projects may still have a localized impact on liquidity. The top three unlocks by value are as follows:

• HYPE will unlock approximately $28.16 million worth of tokens, accounting for about 0.2% of circulating supply.

• ENA will unlock approximately $15.14 million worth of tokens, accounting for about 2.3% of circulating supply.

• RED will unlock approximately $3.71 million worth of tokens, accounting for about 9.4% of circulating supply.

References:

• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
• Farside Investors, https://farside.co.uk/btc/
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
• Gate, https://www.gate.com/crypto-market-data
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/cryptocurrency-heatmap
• CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
• DefiLlama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins
• Etherscan, https://etherscan.io/gastracker
• Rootdata, https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising
• Tokenomist, https://tokenomist.ai/
• Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/technology/citi-cuts-bitcoin-ether-forecasts-etf-flows-turn-negative-2026-07-01/
• X, https://x.com/ethereuminsti/status/2072304960142729373?s=20
• The Block, https://www.theblock.co/post/406918/robinhood-chain-goes-live-mainnet-alongside-24-7-tokenized-stocks-lighter-perps-planned-crypto-agentic-trading

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