The notorious stock makes a comeback! Shoutai Shen has suffered consecutive losses for six years totaling over 1 billion yuan but still surged dramatically. Is a single new hemophilia drug supporting the market cap bubble or is this a turning point?

Ask AI · Can STSP-0601 break through the hemophilia market barriers?

This newspaper (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Yu Na Beijing reports

Once famous for its “monster stock” performance, Shuntai Shen (300204.SZ) once again refreshed the script of the capital market with the rally on March 27.

On that day, Shuntai Shen’s 20.02% “20CM” limit-up sparked the innovative drug sector, closing at 27.76 yuan, with a single-day turnover of 1.44B yuan and net main force inflows exceeding 300 million yuan. This strong performance starkly contrasts with the company’s previous forecast released on January 28 for 2025—projected net profit attributable to parent company loss of 69.81 million to 85.33 million yuan, a 38%–52% decrease year-on-year, and revenue of 198 million to 242 million yuan, down 25.4%–38.9% year-on-year.

It is worth noting that this will be Shuntai Shen’s sixth consecutive year of losses, with cumulative losses exceeding 1 billion yuan. Amid the frenzy from a stock price increase of over 32% between March 25 and March 31, and a market capitalization surpassing 13 billion yuan on March 30, the market’s enthusiasm masks three core issues: ongoing financial bleeding, R&D focus on betting, and severely overextended valuation.

Looking back, Shuntai Shen’s stock price has long experienced rollercoaster rides. In 2025, the company’s stock soared from 5.90 yuan to 66.66 yuan, then fell back to 27.32 yuan by year-end, a retracement of over 66%. Is this recent sharp rise another round of capital speculation detached from fundamentals, or is the market optimistic about its innovative drug pipeline value?

Profitability Dilemma to Be Solved

Founded in 2002, Shuntai Shen listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange’s ChiNext in April 2011. It is a national high-tech enterprise focusing on R&D, manufacturing, and sales of biopharmaceuticals and chemical drugs, covering neurological, infectious, and autoimmune diseases.

With two core products, Shuntai Shen once reached its peak. The injectable mouse nerve growth factor “Sutai Sheng” was the first domestically approved mouse nerve growth factor, with peak annual sales exceeding 1.2 billion yuan; the compound polyethylene glycol electrolyte powder “Shutai Qing” is the only domestic product with dual indications for intestinal cleansing and constipation, both contributing over 90% of revenue long-term.

(Source: Shuntai Shen 2024 Annual Report)

However, in recent years, as the core products’ competitiveness declined, Shuntai Shen’s performance plummeted into a continuous loss trap. According to financial data, from 2020 to 2024, the company accumulated losses of 911 million yuan, and in 2025, losses are expected to continue, entering its sixth year of losses, with total losses possibly exceeding 1 billion yuan. The forecast for 2025 shows a net profit attributable to parent company loss of 74.09 million to 90.56 million yuan, barely “reducing losses” relying on government subsidies and other non-recurring gains and losses (estimated at 4.75 million yuan). This performance improvement appears more like “paper gains,” with questionable sustainability.

(Source: Shuntai Shen 2024 Annual Report)

Behind the losses is the ongoing decline of traditional core businesses. The two major products that once supported the company, Sutai Sheng and Shutai Qing, have both “lost momentum”: Sutai Sheng’s revenue fell 17.30% year-on-year in 2024 to 134 million yuan, affected by medical insurance policy adjustments and competitive pressures; Shutai Qing’s revenue declined 8.20% to 179 million yuan, and further decline is expected in 2025 due to external environment and industry policies. With these two pillars weakening, the company’s revenue has shrunk from its peak, and other products lack competitiveness, making it difficult to fill the gap, ultimately falling into the awkward situation of “no core profitable business.”

Revenue decline and ongoing losses have directly pushed the company’s cash flow to the “tightrope.” In the first three quarters of 2025, net cash flow from operating activities was -1.07 billion yuan; the full year of 2024 was also negative, relying on external financing to sustain daily operations and R&D investments. As of the end of September 2025, the company’s cash holdings were only 214 million yuan, while short-term liabilities totaled 187 million yuan, highlighting financial pressure. Since 2020, the company has conducted five equity financings, raising over 2 billion yuan in total, and now plans to raise an additional 107M yuan through private placement. Industry commentator Xiao Xiao told Huaxia Times that this “financing—burning money—refinancing” cycle not only dilutes shareholders’ equity but also hides the risk of a broken capital chain.

More concerning is the serious “imbalance” between R&D investment and output, further increasing financial pressure. Despite shrinking revenue, Shuntai Shen maintains high R&D expenditure: in 2024, R&D costs reached 162 million yuan, nearly 50% of revenue; in 2025, projected R&D investment exceeds 200 million yuan. However, this “persistence” has not yielded proportional returns: the company has 15 R&D pipelines, with only STSP-0601 in the application stage for approval among Class I innovative drugs, the rest are in early stages, unlikely to generate short-term revenue. The high failure rate of innovative drug R&D means that if the core pipeline does not progress as expected, the huge early investments could be lost.

Valuation Bubble Emerges

Shuntai Shen’s recent stock price surge is disconnected from its deteriorating fundamentals of continuous losses and shrinking revenue, making the risk of valuation bubble more apparent.

As of March 31, 2026, the company’s market capitalization reached 1.25B yuan, while 2025 revenue is only estimated at 198 million to 242 million yuan, giving a price-to-sales ratio of about 59–72 times—far above the 15–20 times industry average for innovative drugs, and even exceeding the 7 times reasonable valuation for traditional pharmaceutical companies. This suggests the high valuation is mainly supported by market expectations for its core innovative drug STSP-0601. As a Class I innovative drug for hemophilia treatment, it has been included in priority review, expected to be approved in the first half of 2026. The market generally believes it can fill the domestic gap in this field and potentially reach a peak sales of 2 billion yuan. But this seemingly optimistic outlook hides multiple risks.

Xiao Xiao believes that, from a market perspective, hemophilia with inhibitors is a rare disease. According to the “China Hemophilia Diagnosis and Treatment Report 2024,” there are about 40k registered hemophilia patients in China, with 20–30% of severe hemophilia A patients developing inhibitors, and 5–10% of moderate or mild cases. Based on this, the number of hemophilia patients with inhibitors is estimated at 10k–20k. At an estimated treatment cost of 100k yuan per patient per year, the market size is only 1–2 billion yuan. International giants like Roche and Bayer have long entered this field, making it difficult for Shuntai Shen, as a domestic new drug, to break through market barriers in the short term.

In addition, regarding commercialization capability, Shuntai Shen has long focused on neurological repair and digestive fields, lacking channels and experience in blood diseases. Commercialization of rare disease drugs requires a professional team and comprehensive patient education systems, which are short-term weaknesses that are hard to overcome. After product launch, it may face the dilemma of “good reputation but poor sales.” Moreover, priority review is not a “green channel”; STSP-0601 may still face additional clinical data requests due to safety and efficacy concerns, or even approval failure.

Behind the “pre-loss but soaring” market performance of Shuntai Shen are the extreme valuation logic of the current innovative drug sector—“heavy pipeline, light performance”—and the typical difficulties faced by small-cap innovative drug companies in transition: shrinking traditional businesses, unfulfilled R&D pipelines, and heavy reliance on external funding, risking “failure in R&D equals delisting” survival challenges.

“Ning Cao, a partner in healthcare management consulting, told Huaxia Times that for Shuntai Shen, the transformation into an innovative drug company is a ‘battle for survival.’ The success or failure of STSP-0601 will directly determine the company’s life or death.” He said that if the product fails to launch or sales fall short, the company could face an even more dangerous situation: ongoing losses, broken capital chain, halted R&D pipelines, and even delisting risk; even if it succeeds, unresolved issues like weak commercialization and financial imbalance will prevent it from truly escaping the predicament, leaving it to continue struggling in the loss swamp.

Cao Ning believes that the value of innovative drugs lies not in the speed of R&D progress but in the dual support of clinical value and commercialization capability. The current market frenzy over Shuntai Shen’s stock more reflects an overinterpretation of “loss reduction” signals, while ignoring multiple underlying risks. For investors, maintaining rationality, understanding the essence of valuation bubbles, and being alert to losses from bubble bursts are essential. Shuntai Shen’s 2025 annual report is scheduled for release on April 28, and its true financial status and future plans remain to be further verified by the market.

责任编辑：姜雨晴 主编：陈岩鹏