I just checked the Bitcoin chart and things look interesting but complicated. The price recently touched the $74K but is already retreating, now around $74.04K with a 0.89% drop in 24 hours. What catches my attention is that this rebound from the $64K (almost 15% increase in five days) was halted right where the Fibonacci series and the 50-day moving average converge. It's a congested technical point, so to speak.

Analysts are divided on whether this is a real trend change or just a short squeeze. I see that the long position liquidation groups are right around $70K, so that level is now the first line of defense. If it falls below that, the next technical support zone according to the Fibonacci series would be near $64K. It’s not a guarantee, but historically, rebounds in bear markets tend to stop there.

What worries me is the macroeconomic context. The dollar is strong, oil has risen quite a bit this week, and Asian markets have fallen 6.4% since the escalation with Iran. These are not exactly conditions that push crypto upward. Ethereum increased 3.07% this week and is at $2.32K, but Dogecoin dropped 1.99% and Solana fell 2.17%. BNB barely rises 0.27%. The weakness in altcoins is a sign I don’t like to see.

In summary: Bitcoin needs to hold the $70K so that the rally has credibility. If it loses that support, we’ll look again at the Fibonacci series as the next level. Next week will be key to see if this is a cycle change or just a temporary relief in a bear market. I’m watching how the dollar and global markets behave.