I just came across a quite interesting study that shows how close we might already be to a real quantum computer threat scenario for crypto.

Researchers from Caltech and the quantum company Oratomic have found that the cryptography securing Bitcoin and Ethereum could theoretically be cracked with only 10,000 physical qubits. That is significantly fewer than earlier estimates, which assumed several hundred thousand. Over two decades, the estimated requirements have decreased by five orders of magnitude—from about a billion qubits in 2012 to around 10,000 today.

What this specifically means: A system with about 26,000 qubits could crack the ECC-256 encryption that protects Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains in roughly 10 days. This would allow a quantum computer to derive private keys and take control of funds. RSA-2048, used by financial institutions, would require closer to 102,000 qubits and about three months.

Elliptic curve cryptography is particularly vulnerable because it achieves comparable security with smaller keys—making it much easier for a quantum machine to work through than other encryption methods. That’s the critical point: The cryptography behind your wallets could be compromised faster than many thought.

The 10-day window makes quick "on-spend" attacks, where a quantum computer cracks a key within minutes, practically impossible. But for long-term stored funds—estimated at about 6.9 million BTC in early wallets and reused addresses—that’s a real risk.

An important note: All nine authors are stakeholders in Oratomic, six of whom work there. So the paper functions both as a scientific result and as a roadmap for the company’s hardware approach. Still, the trend is hard to ignore.

The real question is no longer whether quantum systems can break cryptography, but whether the industry will transition to quantum-resistant systems before the costs of such attacks continue to plummet.

On a side note: Bitcoin rose above $75,000 in early U.S. trading on Tuesday (currently around $73,630). Some analysts see a breakout over $75,000 as a potential structural breakthrough that could shift Bitcoin from a consolidation phase into a new upward trend. Others mainly view the $75,000 mark as a psychological barrier.