Something strange is happening in the markets, and Bitcoin seems to be the only one holding steady. While everything around is collapsing (global stocks falling, volatility through the roof, oil skyrocketing), the main cryptocurrency remains at around $73.99K, almost unshaken. Ether rose to $2.32K, BNB moved to $613.20, Solana dropped to $82.99. But here’s the interesting part: veteran strategist Ed Yardeni just increased the probability of a U.S. market crash to 35% (it was 20% before). He says if the oil shock persists, the Fed will be caught between higher inflation and more unemployment. That’s what he calls the double mandate in crisis.

What catches my attention is this: according to an analysis by NYDIG, only 25% of Bitcoin’s movements are explained by its correlation with stocks. The other 75% come from crypto-specific factors. That explains why Bitcoin isn’t falling as much as the S&P 500 (which dropped 2% last week). Yields on 1-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds are rising because traders expect more inflation due to expensive oil. But Bitcoin doesn’t follow that traditional market logic.

That said, if a real market collapse actually happens, risk assets will suffer equally. Historically, Bitcoin has fallen with stocks in every crisis since 2020, even though many see it as a hedge. Hedge funds are already increasing short positions in U.S. stock ETFs, suggesting strong moves are coming. XRP remains at $1.36, Dogecoin at $0.09. The global situation remains tense: the MSCI global stock index fell 3.7% last week, with Asia being the hardest hit. Everything points to the cushion of stability shrinking.