Futures
Access hundreds of perpetual contracts
TradFi
Gold
One platform for global traditional assets
Options
Hot
Trade European-style vanilla options
Unified Account
Maximize your capital efficiency
Demo Trading
Introduction to Futures Trading
Learn the basics of futures trading
Futures Events
Join events to earn rewards
Demo Trading
Use virtual funds to practice risk-free trading
Launch
CandyDrop
Collect candies to earn airdrops
Launchpool
Quick staking, earn potential new tokens
HODLer Airdrop
Hold GT and get massive airdrops for free
Pre-IPOs
Unlock full access to global stock IPOs
Alpha Points
Trade on-chain assets and earn airdrops
Futures Points
Earn futures points and claim airdrop rewards
Strait of Hormuz: Wall Street's "Immunity" Is Premature
The Real Impact of Geopolitical Shocks
On April 12, the second round of US-Iran talks in Islamabad ended in failure, and Trump subsequently announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This strait accounts for about 25%-30% of global oil trade, and combined with Iran and the Houthi forces' synchronized blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the crude oil supply gap is approximately 6.2 million barrels per day. If both straits are blocked, oil prices could structurally surge to $130.
Goldman Sachs warns: If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for a month, Brent crude oil's average price for the year could surpass $100; if the closure lasts longer, the third-quarter average could reach $120.
Why the Crypto Market Shows "Resilience"
After geopolitical news broke, Bitcoin briefly fell from $74,000 to around $70,000, but implied volatility and risk reversal indicators have already fallen back to pre-conflict levels. Market focus is shifting from geopolitical headlines to execution details, as multiple delays in Trump’s blockade policy have made policy credibility itself a trading variable.
The cryptocurrency market appears to be "immune," but the root causes may be: first, the market has already partially priced in the expectation of a ceasefire; second, institutional buying as a structural force is absorbing short-term panic selling (BlackRock’s IBIT saw net inflows of $612.1 million last week); third, rising oil prices boost inflation expectations, which in turn weaken the market’s anticipation of a quick Fed rate cut. There is a complex mutual offset between geopolitical shocks and macro logic.
The risk is: if energy costs remain high, inflation expectations will force the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer. At that point, the negative feedback loop of "rising oil prices → rising inflation → delayed rate cuts → pressure on risk assets" will fully activate. The narrative of Wall Street's "immunity" has not yet been truly validated. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战