I saw yesterday the sudden jump of Bitcoin to $68,000 after the news about Iran. It seemed to recover immediately from Saturday's losses caused by airstrikes. What happened here is a significant leadership vacuum in Iran because the Supreme Leader died, and this appears to have triggered the rally.

The situation is quite interesting - there is no clear succession plan, only a temporary council to act until the Assembly of Experts appoints a new leader. This has created uncertainty in Iran's military and foreign policy decisions. But traders interpreted this as a lower probability of further escalation, so they sold risk assets like Bitcoin.

The price swing from $64,000 to $68,000 occurred in very thin liquidity on Sunday, which is roughly a $80 billion move in market cap in just hours. Now it has stabilized around $74,000 levels. The key question is whether the momentum will hold or reverse like what happened on Wednesday.

Wait until oil and equity futures open tomorrow – that’s where we’ll see if the optimism is sustained or just a flash rally. If markets interpret the lack of stable governance as leading to supply disruptions, since Iran exports almost a third of global crude, energy prices could spike and pressure inflation expectations. That is normally bearish for risk assets.

But if traders are confident that succession mechanisms will function properly and there is no wider conflict, we might see continued support for crypto. Bitcoin is currently testing resistance at $76,000 but struggling to break out. Funding rates on perpetual contracts are still negative for 46 days straight, even though open interest has increased – a sign of caution in the market.