April 14’s violent surge shot up to around 76,000! It made many people think the bull run is back. But once you break down the news story, you’ll find—this rally is actually shaky.

Trump says Iran is interested in talks: On April 14, Trump said Iran is “interested” in peaceful negotiations, while the U.S. Central Command clarified the scope of the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.

It looks great, doesn’t it? But Zhongling invites you to think a bit deeper:

· Iran is only “interested”—it hasn’t even sat down at the negotiation table
· The U.S. military is only “clarifying the scope,” with no reduction in operations
· A ceasefire agreement is a long way off
· The risk of real, substantive supply disruptions still remains

The market almost instinctively interprets it as: war risk cooling down. Then short sellers, in a panic-driven rush, close their positions, and the price gets pushed all at once to around 76,000.

So this bullish candle, in essence, is a sentiment-driven short-covering bounce triggered by news—not a trend reversal. Since the fundamentals haven’t changed, the short direction won’t change either. Zhongling’s first target is still 72,000.
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