I noticed that retail investors' performance in prediction markets is worse than in sports betting. The median return is around -8% compared to -5%. In other words, small traders are flowing into prediction markets, but they are almost all losing money.

The reason for this is that sports betting companies eliminate winning players to manage risk, whereas prediction markets allow anyone to participate, so professionals and high-frequency traders are taking the opposite side of amateur traders. That means the difference in information advantage directly translates into profit and loss gaps.

Only users trading over $500k are achieving a +2.6% return, while everything below that is in the negative. Small traders under $100 are down as much as -26.8%. Even on the sports betting side, there are no winners, but the losses are shallower.

Another interesting point is that emerging prediction platforms are attracting the younger generation. 24% of users are 25 or younger, with a median age of 31. Meanwhile, major sports betting companies have only about 7% of users aged 25 or younger. This suggests that the next-generation users might be being captured first.

From an editorial perspective as media players, the number of industry analysis reports is increasing, and management teams of various companies still tend to underestimate the threat of prediction markets. But the market trend is definitely changing.

The STRC token is also making waves, reportedly ranking 7th in trading volume after launch. Its price is stable around $100, and liquidity is strong. There are reports that over 2000 BTC worth of funds moved during Wednesday’s market price issuance.

Ultimately, prediction markets are an interesting sector, but they are not yet a reliable asset-building method for small investors. The gap in power and information with professionals is too large.