Prediction markets price the U.S. Men's National Team at 85% to advance past Bosnia and Herzegovina in the FIFA World Cup Round of 32, according to Kalshi data at the time of writing. The same platform gives the U.S. roughly 5% odds to win the tournament outright, down sharply after a tougher draw, and 48% to cover a -1.5 goal margin. Caesars sportsbook head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike told FOX Sports the desk had been struck by the volume of patriotic money on the U.S., with the book's preferred outcome a draw in 90 minutes and a penalty shootout win. Prediction markets have become a fixture of this World Cup, with monthly volumes running into the tens of billions of dollars, though nine European gambling regulators pledged coordinated action against unlicensed platforms.
Kalshi and Polymarket Price USMNT at 85-90% to Advance
At the time of writing, Kalshi traders price the USA at 85% to advance past Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32, making it one of the most lopsided knockout prices on the board. Bosnia reached the knockout round as the highest-ranked third-place finisher after a 1-1-1 group stage in which it was outscored 6-5, while the U.S. topped its group despite a 3-2 loss to Türkiye in a dead-rubber final match with heavy squad rotation.
Kalshi's regulation-time market prices the U.S. at roughly 48% to win by two or more goals, meaning traders see a comfortable-but-not-blowout result as close to a coin flip. The platform now prices the U.S. at roughly 5% to win the tournament outright, and the contract on the Americans being eliminated in the next round of play climbed from 26% to 35% in under a week, reflecting a harder projected path with a probable meeting against Belgium or Senegal next.
On Polymarket, the offshore competitor, the title bet trades even lower at around 3%. For the Bosnia game, trades price the USMNT at 90% to advance, rounded, with the split at 70% for an outright win, 20% for a full-time draw, and 11% for a U.S. loss in regulation.
Caesars Sportsbook Sees Heavy U.S. Betting Volume
Caesars head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike described a similar picture to FOX Sports from the sportsbook side, noting the desk had been struck by the volume of patriotic money. "It's half understandable, but equally, we were surprised to see the scale of the action," he said.
Bickerdike added that the book's preferred outcome is not just a U.S. win but a tight one: "Absolutely, a draw in 90 minutes is preferred, regardless of the result after that," with "the USA winning on penalties" the ideal for continued engagement. He said most of the book's liability sits on the Over.
European Regulators Target Unlicensed Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have become a fixture of this World Cup, with volumes across the sector running into the tens of billions of dollars monthly and platforms adding ever more granular in-game contracts. That growth has drawn intensifying regulatory pressure on both sides of the Atlantic, with nine European gambling regulators pledging coordinated action against unlicensed prediction markets. For now, the tournament has become one of the busiest event-contract categories on the board.
FAQ
What are prediction markets pricing for the USMNT vs Bosnia match?
Kalshi prices the U.S. at 85% to advance past Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32 at the time of writing. Polymarket prices the USMNT at 90% to advance, with a 70% chance for an outright win, 20% for a full-time draw, and 11% for a U.S. loss in regulation.
What did Caesars sportsbook say about betting volume on the USA?
Caesars head of soccer trading Mark Bickerdike told FOX Sports the desk had been struck by the volume of patriotic money on the U.S., describing it as half understandable but surprising in scale. He said the book's preferred outcome is a draw in 90 minutes with the USA winning on penalties, and most liability sits on the Over.
