On June 12, 2026, SpaceX will list on Nasdaq at a price of $135 per share, with the ticker “SPCX.” The base fundraising size is $75 billion, and the overall valuation is approximately $1.77 trillion. This is not only the largest IPO in global capital market history by scale, but it may also become the most iconic capital market event of 2026.
However, on the eve of SpaceX’s listing, AI chip stocks have experienced the most intense selloff in months. On June 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged more than 10% in a single day, wiping out over $1 trillion in market value; the Nasdaq Composite fell more than 4%. On the same day, Bitcoin broke below the $60,000 level, at one point dropping to its lowest level since October 2024.
Is there an inherent link between these two market anomalies? Is SpaceX’s listing a “pump” or a “catalyst”?
What signs suggest the SpaceX IPO is diverting market funds
Market observers generally believe that SpaceX’s mega IPO is creating a crowding-out effect on existing risk assets. The reason lies in its unprecedented scale.
The base proceeds of this IPO are $75 billion, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion historical record. If the underwriters exercise the over-allotment option, total fundraising could further expand to $86.2 billion. More importantly, SpaceX directly allocated as much as 30% of its shares to retail investors, far above the traditional IPO range of about 5% to 10%. This means that if retail investors want to participate in the subscription, they will likely need to sell existing holdings to free up capital.
In fact, signs of fund diversion have appeared across multiple asset classes. In the U.S., the “Magnificent Seven” tech index rose by only 2% over the past month—less than half the S&P 500’s gain. In crypto markets, as of June 3, spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with cumulative redemptions of roughly $4.4 billion.
That said, it’s worth pointing out that while the SpaceX IPO is huge, it is not the only factor. In the same period, Anthropic has reportedly filed an IPO prospectus in secret, and OpenAI also plans to submit an IPO application within weeks. The combined total market cap of the three companies is close to $4 trillion. The real funding pressure comes from the supply wave formed by multiple IPOs stacking together, rather than from SpaceX alone.
What are the core drivers behind the plunge in AI chip stocks
The crash in the AI chip sector cannot be simply attributed to the SpaceX IPO. Tracing back to the trigger point, it was the U.S. May non-farm employment data released on June 5, 2026 that came in far above expectations—adding 172,000 jobs, nearly double the expected figure—serving as the direct spark. This data pushed market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 up to 63%, with the probability of a hike before January next year approaching nearly 100%.
For technology growth stocks whose high valuations rely on a low-rate environment, intensifying rate-hike expectations mean a higher discount rate, which in turn compresses valuation multiples. The market reacted quickly: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell more than 10% in a single day, the biggest one-day drop since March 2020. Broadcom dropped more than 12% on results that missed expectations; ARM and Micron fell by roughly 4% and 8%, respectively.
Asian markets then took over the downside. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 8.8% in a day, Japan’s Nikkei fell 3.85%, and the biggest decliners were also AI and semiconductor-related stocks.
Notably, some institutions have different views on the nature of this selloff. After revisiting five historical cases such as the PC/networking cycle and the AI wave, 广发证券’s strategy team said: “There are no historical cases showing that when interest rates rise and liquidity tightens, it is bad for tech stocks, or that it leads to valuation cuts for growth stocks”—a logic relationship that exists more as an assumption in discount-rate models. From this perspective, the current decline looks more like the market’s stage-wise overreaction to rising rate expectations, rather than a fundamental reversal of AI industry trends.
What market sentiment is reflected in the latest performance of AI chip leaders
As of June 10, 2026, the differentiation pattern in the AI chip sector has further intensified. Different stocks show clear disparities between capital pressure and fundamental support.
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) was the first to get hit in this round of adjustment. On June 9, the stock sank 17.17% to $162.88. It briefly touched a low of $160.87 intraday, while the high reached $207.60; the intraday swing was as high as 23.76%. Over the past 5 trading days, AAOI has fallen 19.51% cumulatively; from the start of the year to date, it is still up as much as 367.24%, and over the past 52 weeks, it has gained 865.50%. The core logic that drove AAOI’s valuation to climb earlier—soaring demand for high-speed optical interconnects in AI data centers, tight laser manufacturing capacity, and support from U.S. domestic manufacturing policies—has not changed at the fundamental level. But after valuations run high, the market’s sensitivity to any marginal changes has increased significantly.
Micron Technology (MU) is even more representative. The stock plunged 7.74% on June 4, briefly breaking below the $1,000 mark intraday and closing at $996. On June 8, it rebounded 9.87% to $949.28, then fell again 1.41% on June 9 to close at $935.89. As of June 9, Micron’s past 5 trading days saw a cumulative drop of 12.05%, but it is still up 227.91% year-to-date, and up 743.52% over the past 52 weeks. Worth noting, Micron’s trading value that day was $67.067 billion, the highest among U.S. stocks, far exceeding other names. Heavy trading with only a modest decline shows fierce standoff between bulls and bears at this level.
Korean memory giant SK hynix, meanwhile, has staged a sharp V-shaped rebound. On June 5—the day the AI stock rout hit—SK hynix fell sharply in line with the broader market. But on June 4, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang arrived in Seoul and signed five AI cooperation agreements in quick succession, including a multi-year AI memory technology partnership with SK hynix. Huang said publicly in Seoul: “No matter what happens in the stock market, you should be happy, because you can buy at a discount now.” Lifted by this, South Korea’s KOSPI surged 8.18% on June 9, nearly recovering the 8.29% crash loss from the previous trading day in just one day. SK hynix jumped 15.91% in a day, while Samsung Electronics rose 8.97%. As of June 10, SK hynix was temporarily quoted at 2,097,000 Korean won, down 5.33% over the past 24 hours.
Broadcom (AVGO) also suffered a setback after its earnings. Broadcom’s second-quarter revenue hit a new high of $22.19 billion, with AI semiconductor revenue doubling. However, shares fell 12.59% on June 4 in a single day because management was unwilling to raise the full-year AI semiconductor revenue target—marking the biggest one-day decline in the company’s history. As of June 10, Broadcom was quoted at $388.38; over the past 5 trading days it is down 13.78%, and its gain since the start of the year has narrowed to 14.59%.
By contrast, ARM Holdings (ARM) fell even more sharply. As of June 10, ARM was $324.86. Over the past 5 trading days it is down 19.33%, and still up 197.19% year-to-date. On a P/E basis, ARM’s current TTM P/E is as high as 393x, making it one of the most valuation-extreme names in the AI chip sector.
From the above data, it’s clear that the AI chip sector is currently highly differentiated: names with locked HBM orders and industry-chain synergy advantages (such as SK hynix) rebound quickly after large selloffs; names with extremely high valuations and no clear fundamental support (such as ARM) fall further; and Micron—active in trading but sensitive to macro variables—is in a bull-bear standoff phase.
Does SpaceX’s sky-high valuation itself create an inverse “anchor” for the market
SpaceX’s valuation of $1.77 trillion provides an important reference point for the entire technology sector. When a company with revenue under $20 billion and a net loss of nearly $5 billion comes public at nearly 92x sales, the market must reassess the reasonableness of valuations for other tech stocks.
An independent research firm, Morningstar, offered an even more aggressive view. Morningstar believes SpaceX’s fair value is about $780 billion, less than half of the target valuation. One of its core arguments is that the newly acquired AI business could become a major threat to the company’s value. SpaceX acquired Musk-founded AI company xAI in February 2026, and xAI recorded an approximate $2.5 billion loss in Q1, creating a significant drag on SpaceX’s overall performance.
Comparing valuation levels, SpaceX’s EBITDA multiple is as high as 175x, far above most large tech companies. This valuation level creates a contradictory effect: on one hand it attracts capital rushing in; on the other, it may trigger market concerns about an overall tech stock bubble. Once the market becomes aware of a “priced-too-high IPO,” the already crowded AI track naturally faces extra scrutiny and risk-aversion sentiment.
How SpaceX exerts capital squeeze on the crypto market
The crypto market has also been hit significantly during this round of volatility. On June 5, Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000; Ethereum’s daily drop was 11%, and the weekly cumulative decline exceeded 20%. But is this crypto selloff a direct impact of the SpaceX IPO, or part of a broader de-risking move?
On-chain data shows some complexity. Although market speculation suggested that some crypto investors may be selling Bitcoin to participate in the SpaceX subscription, the outflow size of stablecoins USDT and USDC has not shown abnormal behavior and remains within the normal range since February this year. Instead, on June 6, Bitcoin and Ethereum recorded roughly 664,700 BTC and 2.49 million ETH of net exchange outflows, indicating that some investors are shifting into private wallets to buy “on dips,” rather than cashing out in a concentrated way.
The real capital outflow pressure comes from the spot ETF space. As of early June, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows for multiple days, with cumulative redemptions of about $4.4 billion. The investors in these ETFs are mainly institutional capital; their allocation logic is closer to traditional asset portfolios, and they are more sensitive to IPO supply. Wintermute noted that ETF cumulative outflows in May totaled about $2.97 billion, reflecting that U.S. institutional funds have been steadily withdrawing and that there has not been enough new buying to absorb the selloff.
In addition, crypto companies including Kraken, Ledger, and Grayscale have already paused their 2026 IPO plans due to a soft market environment. This means the AI sector is not only pulling capital away from the investment side, but also taking market space for IPO financing from crypto companies.
Overall, the crypto market’s decline looks like the result of multiple factors stacking together: the SpaceX IPO diverting retail funds, the ongoing AI boom drawing away institutional capital allocations, and Fed rate-hike expectations suppressing risk appetite—together pushing capital from crypto assets toward traditional tech IPOs.
What vulnerabilities in capital structure this selloff exposed
This synchronized downturn exposes an important signal: when the AI sector, AI-related tokens, and traditional tech stocks are all under pressure at the same time, the market is no longer facing simple sector rotation, but a broader de-risking.
In Q1 2026, AI Agent tokens overall fell by 80% to 90%, with highly differentiated performance: tokens without real application scenarios nearly went to zero, while projects with actual usage held firm and rebounded. This differentiation indicates that the market is quickly stripping away the credibility of narrative-only projects.
Before the SpaceX IPO, the market had already accumulated multiple risk signals. Citigroup’s global bear-market warning indicator system has risen to the highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Out of 18 global risk indicators, 10 are flashing red; and in the U.S. market itself, the number is as high as 11.5. Stock market crowding also cannot be ignored: retail accounts currently make up one-fifth of total trading volume—double the level from 15 years ago; and in the past six months, more than 600 U.S. ETFs have completed issuance.
SpaceX’s retail subscription quota of $22.5 billion appears exactly at a time when retail cash reserves are near historical lows. The proportion of Schwab customers’ cash to assets has fallen to the lowest level since 2019. This means that if large amounts of retail investors want to participate in the SpaceX IPO, they must achieve that by selling existing holdings—and one of the easiest types of holdings to sell is Tesla, another public company under Musk.
This structure means SpaceX’s listing is not only a financing event, but an extreme test of retail capital elasticity. If capital supply cannot simultaneously cover AI stocks, crypto assets, and IPO subscriptions, the market could face a “triple hit”—AI stock declines, pressure on crypto assets, and insufficient IPO subscriptions occurring at the same time.
What changes could the adjusted market bring?
Although the short-term fund crowding-out effect is significant, this adjustment may trigger deeper structural changes.
From the perspective of crypto assets, the SpaceX IPO will shift market attention from pure concept speculation toward “verifiable cash flows” and “underlying infrastructure.” Directions such as AI infrastructure (compute power networks), RWA asset circulation platforms, stablecoin payment settlement layers, and DePIN real-world networks are attracting medium- to long-term capital attention because they are closer to actual output. The on-chain tokenized RWA scale has grown from about $5.5 billion at the start of 2025 to about $29.2 billion in April 2026. AI x DePIN in 2026 is seen as a key convergence direction, with projects moving from concept validation toward real network construction and revenue generation.
From the traditional market perspective, SpaceX’s $75 billion fundraise will be used to expand AI business, rocket launches, and satellite infrastructure. This means SpaceX itself will also become a giant buyer in the AI infrastructure field, and its capital expenditures could indirectly push expansion across the AI industry chain. Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX’s sales to reach $470 billion by 2030, nearly 25x higher than 2025.
In the medium term, market structure is switching from an “AI application narrative” to “AI infrastructure.” This switch is happening not only in traditional stock markets, but also mapping simultaneously to crypto markets. For investors, the key is identifying which projects have real usage value, sustainable revenue models, and a structural valuation premium they can capture in capital reallocation.
Gate launches direct access to IPOs, allowing everyday users to participate in the SpaceX IPO
On June 9, 2026, Gate officially launched its “Direct IPO Access (IPO Access)” product, with the first batch project locking in the world’s largest currently unlisted tech company, SpaceX. Users can submit an intent to apply in the “Gate IPOs” section with a minimum of 100 USDT, up to a maximum of 500,000 USDT. Subscriptions are priced entirely in USDT and do not require passing through traditional broker channels. The platform assigns weights based on the user’s hourly weighted-average locked amount; participating earlier can earn a higher allocation weight. Once allocated, the shares will be directly distributed on the listing day (June 12) to the user’s Gate stock account, with 100% unlocked status and no lock-up period—enabling an end-to-end closed loop from IPO subscription to trading in the U.S. equity secondary market. As of June 10, the subscription amount had exceeded $60 million.
The core significance of Direct IPO is that, through a compliant tokenized structure and platform allocation capability, it opens for the first time an IPO subscription channel that has long been monopolized by institutions and top-tier brokers to crypto platform users, building a bridge between crypto assets and traditional primary markets.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q1: Is the SpaceX IPO the main reason for the decline in AI stocks?
A1: Not directly—it is the result of multiple factors. The U.S. non-farm employment data on June 5 far exceeded expectations, triggering strong market expectations for Fed rate hikes, which was the most direct trigger for the selloff in AI chip stocks. The SpaceX IPO is more of a fund-diversion factor that exacerbates liquidity pressure in the market.
Q2: Why has Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) been so volatile recently?
A2: As of June 10, 2026, AAOI has gained 367.24% cumulatively since the beginning of the year, and its gain over the past 52 weeks is as high as 865.50%, meaning it has built up a sizable profit-taking base. Although fundamental logic—such as growth in demand for high-speed optical interconnects from AI data centers—has not changed, in the context of the market’s overall risk appetite declining, highly valued names have become more sensitive to any marginal changes, causing amplified price volatility.
Q3: Why can SK hynix rebound faster than Micron?
A3: SK hynix’s quick rebound is mainly due to a multi-year AI memory technology cooperation agreement signed in Seoul by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, covering next-generation memory for HBM and multiple Nvidia computing platforms. This agreement provides stronger visibility into its future AI memory orders. In addition, starting from HBM4 generation, SK hynix will outsource base-die chip production to TSMC, deepening its ties to core nodes in the AI industry chain.
Q4: Will SpaceX’s high valuation trigger a reassessment of valuations across the AI sector?
A4: It’s possible. SpaceX listed at nearly 92x sales, far above most large tech companies, providing an important valuation reference point for the market. Morningstar, an independent firm, set its fair valuation at $780 billion, showing significant divergence in how the market values AI enterprises. This divergence may further intensify in the future.
Q5: Does this round of declines mean the AI narrative has ended?
A5: Most institutions do not think so. Firms including 广发证券 have pointed out that when the EPS upward revision trend and industry cycle continue, disturbances from interest rates and liquidity are usually short-term noise rather than a mid-term top signal. The key is identifying projects with real business output and sustainable cash flows, rather than concept-style names that rely only on narrative support. From industry dynamics, fundamental factors such as SK hynix and Nvidia strengthening technical cooperation, and persistent tightness in HBM supply, are still reinforcing the medium- to long-term logic of AI infrastructure, which has not been broken.
