Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick maintains his Bitcoin price prediction of $500,000 before Trump leaves office, even as BTC trades over $64,000, roughly 49% below the $126,198 all-time high set in October 2025. Trump's renewed public endorsement of Bitcoin, delivered at a White House event on July 6, explicitly cited geopolitical competition as his primary rationale. The gap between Kendrick's target and current price highlights the structural question of credibility after the bank missed its $200,000 call for 2025, with regulatory tailwind and institutional access through spot ETFs forming the backbone of Standard Chartered's case.
Trump Cites China Competition as Primary Bitcoin Rationale at July 6 White House Event
Trump pressed the geopolitical case directly at the White House event: "And Bitcoin, nobody even understands how powerful it is. The capital flows, nobody understands how powerful it is." The "main reason" for his support, Trump said, was straightforward: "If we don't have it, China's going to have it."
The China framing carries specific policy weight. China has maintained one of the world's strictest bans on crypto trading and mining since 2021 while developing its own central bank digital currency. Trump's argument positions digital asset dominance as a sovereignty question, not just a financial one, giving the White House's pro-crypto posture a national security anchor.
That framing directly reinforces the regulatory tailwind that underpins Kendrick's BTC price target. Legislative clarity under a sympathetic administration, combined with institutional access through spot ETFs, is the structural backbone of Standard Chartered's bull case.
Kendrick First Stated $500K Target in February 2025 CNBC Appearance
Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, first put the $500K Bitcoin call on record in a February 2025 CNBC appearance. At the time, he framed the target around Trump's regulatory agenda providing a long-term structural boost: "That should add to that medium-term upside potential, which for me is Bitcoin up to $200,000 this year and $500,000 before Trump leaves office," he said.
BTC did not reach $200,000 in 2025. It peaked at $126,198 in October before pulling back. Despite that miss, Standard Chartered and Kendrick have not retracted the 2026 and beyond roadmap, continuing to cite institutional inflows, sovereign adoption, and Bitcoin's fixed supply as the thesis pillars that remain structurally intact regardless of near-term volatility.
BTC Trades Over $64K After Missing Standard Chartered's $200K 2025 Target
Standard Chartered's $500,000 remains the stated Trump-term endpoint for the bank's forecast. BTC's current positioning near $64,000, pressured by geopolitical uncertainty and macro headwinds, means the distance between current price and that target is substantial, making near-term waypoints the first test of whether the thesis holds.
Not all analysts share the conviction. Some outside analysts argue that a sustained low-to-mid six-figure Bitcoin price over the longer term is a more conservative base case, and that further downside remains possible before any durable recovery takes hold.
FAQ
What did Trump say about Bitcoin at the July 6 White House event?
Trump stated that "Bitcoin, nobody even understands how powerful it is," and cited China competition as the "main reason" for his support, saying "If we don't have it, China's going to have it."
When did Geoffrey Kendrick first announce the $500K Bitcoin target?
Kendrick first stated the $500K Bitcoin target in a February 2025 CNBC appearance, framing it around Trump's regulatory agenda and predicting Bitcoin would reach $200,000 in 2025 and $500,000 before Trump leaves office.
What was Bitcoin's all-time high and when did it occur?
Bitcoin reached an all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025, but did not hit Standard Chartered's $200,000 target for that year.
