On June 12, 2026, SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history at a price of $135 per share, raising a total of approximately $85.7 billion. Just three trading days later, the space and artificial intelligence company rewrote the global market-cap ranking for publicly listed companies at an astonishing pace.
As of June 17, 2026, based on Gate stock quote data, on the third trading day after its listing (June 16) SpaceX’s stock price hit a high of $225.64 intraday, at one point rising more than 17%, and ultimately closed at $201.80, up 4.9% on the day. At one point, SpaceX’s market cap surpassed Microsoft, briefly jumping to fourth place among global publicly listed companies; after the close, it fell back to $2.66 trillion, overtaking Amazon’s $2.65 trillion to officially take fifth place globally. The top four were Nvidia ($5.02 trillion), Google ($4.52 trillion), Apple ($4.40 trillion), and Microsoft ($2.93 trillion).
This surge implies that after listing, SpaceX had gained about 49% cumulatively, with its market cap increasing by nearly $90 billion from the $1.77 trillion at the time of the IPO. For any listed company, such speed is virtually unheard of.
Breaking the $200 threshold: is it a repricing correction or market overheating?
SpaceX’s opening price on its first day of trading reached $174, up 29% from the offering price. On the second trading day, it closed at $192.5. On the third trading day, it opened and broke through the $200 threshold immediately, then surged to $225.64 intraday on momentum, before shaking back down and ultimately holding above $200.
Purely from the numbers, $200 itself has no special meaning—it’s merely a psychological level. But the timing of the breakout is worth watching: it took only three trading days. Compared with other major IPOs in history, there are almost no precedents for a similar pace. After topping at $225, the pullback of more than 10% also reflects intensifying selling pressure at high levels and widening divergence between bulls and bears.
The real question is: what is driving this price-discovery process—fulfillment of fundamental logic, or the market structure and trading mechanics at work?
Valuation basis for a $2.66 trillion market cap: tension between revenue, losses, and expectations
SpaceX’s current market cap has surpassed Amazon and is nearing Microsoft’s $2.93 trillion. But if you compare against financial fundamentals, the gap between the two is enormous.
According to SpaceX financial report data, in 2025 the company’s revenue was $18.67 billion, but after merging with xAI, it recorded a full-year net loss of $4.94 billion. By comparison, Microsoft’s annual revenue exceeded $280 billion, while Amazon was close to $717 billion.
In other words, SpaceX—supported by less than $20 billion in revenue and a loss situation—has held up a $2.66 trillion market cap. In traditional valuation frameworks, this valuation multiple is almost impossible to explain using the price-to-earnings ratio.
The main logic supporting this valuation includes: the growth potential of Starlink’s satellite internet business, the commercialization outlook for Starship, and xAI’s positioning in artificial intelligence. But most of these businesses are still in a high-investment phase and have not yet formed a stable profitability model. Several analysts have raised doubts. Swiss bank analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya said plainly that SpaceX’s valuation is “completely unreasonable,” and believes the stock rise is driven more by speculation. CFRA issued a “sell” rating on the IPO day itself, with a target price of only $115. A Morningstar analyst estimated fair value using a discounted cash flow model at about $78.0 billion, corresponding to $60 per share.
This huge gap between fundamentals and market cap is at the core of today’s market divergence, and is also one of the underlying reasons the stock quickly retreated after touching $225 intraday.
Extremely low float: the multiplier effect of passive buying and scarce supply
To understand SpaceX’s stock price trajectory, you can’t get around one key variable: the float ratio.
On its first day of listing, the shares actually available to trade were only about 4.2% of the total share capital. This proportion is far lower than the typical float levels of large listed companies. When float is extremely scarce, any buying of meaningful size can push prices disproportionately upward.
Edward Jones senior global investment strategist Angelo Kourkafas pointed out clearly: “Compared with its market cap, the amount of stock this company provides to the public is very limited.”
More importantly, passive index fund buying is about to arrive. Nasdaq has modified index inclusion rules, shortening the waiting period for large IPOs from up to one year to 15 trading days. That means SpaceX can be included in the Nasdaq 100 as early as the third week after listing. FTSE Russell also shortened its waiting period to 5 trading days.
The exchange-traded funds that track the Nasdaq 100 (such as QQQ) manage assets of about $500 billion. Once SpaceX is included, these passive funds will have to buy in a price-insensitive way. With current tradable shares below 5%, the contradiction between programmatic rigid buy orders and ultra-low supply may further amplify price volatility—explaining the momentum behind the intraday surge, while also hinting at potentially dramatic shakeouts ahead.
Index inclusion rule changes: how institutional tweaks reshape price discovery
SpaceX’s rapid rise has, to some extent, benefited from institutional changes to index inclusion rules.
A new Nasdaq rule effective May 1, 2026 eliminated the prior requirement for the minimum float (previously at least 10% of shares available for public trading) and shortened the “maturity” window from up to one year to 15 days. FTSE Russell simultaneously adjusted its minimum float requirement to 5%.
The direct consequence is that SpaceX was included in mainstream indices within a very short time after listing, triggering large-scale passive buying. Research firm Zephirin Group noted that although simply being included in an index often isn’t enough on its own to drive sustained repricing, the combined effect of passive capital inflows, market momentum, and limited float may make this index-inclusion move “go beyond the past.”
However, S&P 500 did not follow with similar adjustments. S&P’s inclusion rules require companies to have profitability in the most recent quarter and over the past 12 months; since SpaceX reported a loss of $4.94 billion last year, it cannot be included in the S&P 500 in the near term. This differentiated treatment means SpaceX will benefit from passive buying via the Nasdaq 100, but temporarily misses the larger pool of index funds represented by the S&P 500—also limiting its further upside.
1.6 million options contracts on the first day of options trading: how derivatives feed back into spot prices
On June 16, SpaceX options contracts began trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and Nasdaq.
Trading on the first day was extremely active. Trading volume exceeded 1.6 million contracts, with the call-to-put ratio around 1.4:1. The three-month implied volatility reached roughly 110% to 115% in the early session, reflecting market expectations that the stock price would experience large two-way swings. The most actively traded contract was a Thursday-expiring call option with a $220 strike.
The mechanism by which options trading affects spot prices is: when traders buy call options, market makers need to buy the underlying shares to hedge risk. As the stock price rises, it increases the market maker’s risk exposure, forcing them to keep adding shares—forming a positive feedback loop. Brent Kochuba, founder of SpotGamma, said that heavy net-bullish options trading was an important reason the SpaceX stock price pushed up to $225 in Tuesday’s early session.
On the day, SpaceX’s stock trading value was about $61.0 billion, the highest among U.S. large listed companies. The linkage effect between options and the spot market is further magnified in a context where float is already scarce. However, after the stock surges, some market makers may take profits or adjust their hedging positions, which is one of the technical factors behind the close at $201.8.
A $60 billion acquisition of Cursor: the first strategic puzzle piece after listing
Alongside the stock’s spike, on June 16 SpaceX announced a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the parent company of AI programming tool Cursor.
This acquisition has multiple implications. First, it is SpaceX’s first major merger and acquisition after listing. Second, when Cursor raised its most recent round of financing in November last year, it was valued at about $29.0 billion; this acquisition premium is more than double. Third, SpaceX had already obtained an option to acquire Cursor for $60 billion back in April, but delayed execution due to the IPO process.
Strategically, this deal further strengthens SpaceX’s positioning in artificial intelligence. Previously, SpaceX completed its acquisition of xAI in February. Cursor is a leader in AI programming tools, with its products widely adopted among senior software engineers. The acquisition is expected to be completed in the third quarter of 2026.
This merger also sends a clear signal to the market: SpaceX’s capital operations are not stopping at the IPO itself, but accelerating integration of AI capabilities to provide narrative support for long-term valuation.
Lock-up expirations and supply release: structural tests for the current rally
SpaceX’s current high-level run is built on extremely scarce float. But this structure won’t last forever.
SpaceX uses an unusual lock-up arrangement that prevents insiders and early investors from selling shares within a specific period. As lock-ups expire over the coming months, additional share supply will enter the market.
Market watchers expect that once lock-ups expire, insiders will be able to sell more shares, and SpaceX’s stock price may face significant downside pressure. This is a structural risk that needs to be taken seriously—when supply returns from extreme scarcity to normal levels, the price-discovery mechanism will undergo a fundamental change.
At the same time, SpaceX’s weight in the Nasdaq 100 will rise as float increases, and passive buying from index funds will occur alongside the additional supply created by lock-up expirations. The interplay between these two forces will be a key variable in shaping SpaceX’s stock price over the next few months. The phenomenon of surge-then-retrace during the day may well be an early preview of this tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
FAQ
Q: What is SpaceX’s cumulative gain after listing?
As of June 17, 2026, based on Gate stock quote data, SpaceX was issued at $135 per share; on the third trading day it closed at $201.80, for a cumulative gain of about 49.5%.
Q: What is SpaceX’s current market cap and global ranking?
With a market cap of $2.66 trillion, it surpassed Amazon ($2.65 trillion) and ranks fifth among global publicly listed companies. It briefly surpassed Microsoft during the day, reaching as high as fourth, before closing back down to fifth. The top four are Nvidia ($5.02 trillion), Google ($4.52 trillion), Apple ($4.40 trillion), and Microsoft ($2.93 trillion).
Q: Why is SpaceX’s float ratio so low?
On the day it listed, the shares actually available for trading were only about 4.2% of the total share capital. In the IPO, it sold only about 5% of its shares, with most ownership still held by insiders and early investors.
Q: When will SpaceX be included in major indices?
Nasdaq has shortened the waiting period for large IPOs to 15 trading days, meaning SpaceX can be included in the Nasdaq 100 as early as its third week after listing. FTSE Russell has shortened the waiting period to 5 trading days. But the S&P 500 has not adjusted its rules, and SpaceX cannot be immediately included because it has not yet achieved profitability.
Q: What is the deal value of SpaceX’s acquisition of Cursor?
SpaceX will acquire the parent company of AI programming tool Cursor, Anysphere, in a $60 billion all-stock transaction, expected to close in the third quarter of 2026.
