SpaceX (SPCX) stock surged 5% on Tuesday to $201.8, pushing the company's market cap to $2.642 trillion and extending gains to nearly 50% above its $135 IPO price. The rally followed the company's announcement of a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the maker of AI coding platform Cursor. However, Morningstar cut its fair value estimate for SpaceX to $62 per share from $63, citing the impact of the Cursor deal and calling SPCX one of the most expensive stocks in its coverage universe at current prices of about 3.2 times the firm's valuation.
Morningstar Cuts SpaceX Fair Value to $62 Per Share
Morningstar lowered its fair value estimate for SpaceX to $62 per share from $63 following the Cursor acquisition. The research firm cited the impact of the $60 billion all-stock deal, while noting that the transaction pushes an already richly valued stock further into expensive territory. Morningstar's $62 fair value estimate implies a 69% downside from current levels, leaving SpaceX trading at about 3.2x the analyst's valuation.
SpaceX announced on Tuesday that it would acquire Anysphere, the maker of AI coding platform Cursor, in a $60 billion all-stock deal. The deal gives SpaceX a stronger foothold in enterprise AI software and expands its AI ambitions following its earlier acquisition of xAI.
SpaceX Market Cap Reaches $2.642 Trillion
The post-IPO rally has turned SpaceX into the sixth-largest public company in the U.S., with a market cap of $2.642 trillion approaching Amazon's $2.646 trillion. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 and Morningstar expects that figure to grow to $36.8 billion in 2026. The research firm noted that even at projected 2026 revenue levels, the company would only match Micron Technology's (MU) revenue from last year, while Amazon generated over 19 times as much.
SpaceX trades at 141x 2025 sales and nearly 78x projected 2026 sales, which is over 3x Broadcom's (AVGO) multiple and 26x Amazon's. Since SpaceX remains unprofitable, traditional earnings-based valuation metrics cannot yet be applied, Morningstar said.
Shares are also up 2% overnight late Tuesday. Bulls were rewarded as the Leverage Shares 2X Long SPCX Daily ETF (SPCH) jumped 10%, while the bearish Leverage Shares 2X Short SPCX Daily ETF (SSPC) tumbled 10%.
Morningstar Assigns 7% Probability to Optimistic Scenario
Morningstar's model assumes SpaceX eventually develops a rapidly reusable Starship capable of multiple launches per week and successfully commercializes orbital AI data centers. However, the research firm stated: "Neither of these engineering problems has been solved, and we don't expect them to be until at least 2028."
The firm's most optimistic "Moonshot" scenario values SpaceX at $154 per share, but Morningstar assigns only a 7% probability to that outcome. "Our valuation is the result of mathematics more than skepticism," the research firm said last week when it assigned a fair value of $63. "Even at $63 per share, we give SpaceX a lot of benefit of the doubt," Morningstar said.
Nearly One Million SPCX Call Options Traded on First Day
On the first day of SPCX options trading, nearly one million call contracts changed hands, making SpaceX one of the most actively traded options names in the market. "The volume is even more notable because weekly options have not been listed yet," Chris Murphy, co-head of derivatives strategy at Susquehanna Investment Group told MarketWatch.
Among the bullish wagers were purchases of 1,500 July $300 call options and 6,500 July $325 call options.
The next major catalyst is scheduled for late July or early August when SpaceX reports its first earnings as a public company. After the report, pre-IPO investors will be allowed to sell shares equivalent to 7% of outstanding stock, which is more than the amount sold in the IPO itself.
Retail Sentiment Reaches Extremely Bullish Levels
On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for SPCX was 'extremely bullish' amid a 407,767% surge in message volumes over the past week.
One user said, "$SPCX this is being held up by pure fomo. Should be below 200 soon."
Another user said, "Elon does not understand you cannot buy your way to good AI, Zuck already learned this, Cursor acquisition will do nothing for them."
FAQ
What did SpaceX stock do on Tuesday?
SpaceX (SPCX) stock surged 5% on Tuesday to $201.8, extending gains to nearly 50% above its $135 IPO price and pushing its market cap to $2.642 trillion.
Why did Morningstar cut SpaceX's fair value estimate?
Morningstar lowered its fair value estimate for SpaceX to $62 per share from $63 following the company's announcement of a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of Anysphere, the maker of AI coding platform Cursor.
How does SpaceX's valuation compare to Amazon and Broadcom?
SpaceX trades at 141x 2025 sales and 78x projected 2026 sales, which is over 3x Broadcom's multiple and 26x Amazon's, while its $2.642 trillion market cap approaches Amazon's $2.646 trillion despite generating $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025 compared to Amazon's significantly higher revenue.
