Platinum and palladium have fallen to their lowest levels of the year, with platinum currently trading at $1,711 an ounce (down more than 2%) and palladium at $1,203 an ounce (up 0.5%), following a broad-based sell-off in precious metals. Both metals have dropped more than 9% and 6% respectively since Friday's sell-off, largely tracking moves in gold since late January. Bank of America commodity analysts maintain a bullish year-end outlook despite ongoing macro headwinds from the conflict in the Middle East, expecting the fourth quarter gold rally to draw investors back into the PGM market and add upward pressure to prices. The sell-off reflects broader precious metals weakness as investors respond to geopolitical uncertainties and industrial demand concerns.
Bank of America Forecasts Platinum at $3,000/oz by Q4 2026
Bank of America expects platinum prices to average around $3,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 and through the first half of 2027. Palladium prices are forecast to average around $2,200 an ounce in the last three months of the year. "We remain bullish on gold into 4Q, which we expect will draw investors back into the PGM market and add upward pressure to prices," said commodity analysts at Bank of America.
NYMEX Warehouses Record 200koz Platinum Outflows After Tariff Decision
"The decision to impose no tariffs triggered platinum outflows of more than 200koz from the NYMEX warehouses, equivalent to half of the inflows in 2H25," the analysts said. PGMs saw significant gains through 2025 as the global trade war and the threat of tariffs on precious metals created significant liquidity issues in the physical market. The commodity analysts noted that most of those issues have been resolved, as the tariff threats never materialized.
U.S. Imposes 133% Anti-Dumping Duty on Russian Palladium
Palladium experienced outflows in late January, yet those have now more than reversed as the U.S. Commerce Department issued a final anti-dumping duty of 133% and a countervailing duty of 109% on Russian palladium ounces, according to Bank of America analysts.
Platinum Deficit and Palladium Surplus Expected
Bank of America highlighted shifting demand in PGM markets, as platinum is expected to see a small deficit this year while palladium is forecast to see a small surplus. The analysts pointed out that a growing divergence in the automotive sector could create some volatility as demand for electric vehicles in China outpaces that for traditional internal combustion engine vehicles.
China EV Production Expected to Reach 40% of Light Vehicles
"This year, EVs are expected to account for around 40% of total light vehicle production, surpassing ICE vehicles for the first time, with ICE share falling to 36%, while hybrids are set to reach 24%," the analysts said. "The phase-out of ICE vehicles in China has been pronounced, with production declining to c.14mn units in 2025 from 21mn units in 2020. By contrast, the pace of EV adoption remains slower in Europe and the U.S., with the latter stepping back from earlier electrification ambitions."
China Jewelry Demand Weakens on Surplus Inventories
"Jewellery demand is set to weaken, particularly in China, where surplus inventories accumulated during the mid-2025 fabrication surge continue to weigh on the market," the analysts said. "While part of this excess stock has already been recycled, retailers remain well-stocked and consumer demand subdued, pointing to a sharp contraction in Chinese fabrication volumes this year."
Sibanye-Stillwater Reports 13% Cost Increase in Q1
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is impacting the energy market and driving inflation, which could also affect production, particularly in South Africa, according to Bank of America. "South Africa is exposed to global oil market disruptions because it is a net oil importer, with limited domestic crude production and declining refining capacity, forcing the country to increasingly rely on imported fuel," the analysts said. Diesel prices have risen sharply since the onset of the war, in addition to Eskom having implemented an 8.76% increase in electricity tariffs from April 2026. Already in Q1, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% YoY increase in unit costs, highlighting cost pressures from ongoing inflation, including higher labour and energy costs.
FAQ
What are the current prices of platinum and palladium?
Platinum currently trades at $1,711 an ounce, down more than 2% on the day, while palladium last traded at $1,203 an ounce, up 0.5% on the day. Both metals have dropped more than 9% and 6% respectively since Friday's sell-off.
What is Bank of America's price forecast for platinum and palladium?
Bank of America expects platinum prices to average around $3,000 an ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 and through the first half of 2027. Palladium prices are forecast to average around $2,200 an ounce in the last three months of the year.
What duties did the U.S. impose on Russian palladium?
The U.S. Commerce Department issued a final anti-dumping duty of 133% and a countervailing duty of 109% on Russian palladium ounces.
