In June 2026, the global energy market and risk assets saw a structural turning point. The United States and Iran successfully signed a memorandum of understanding online, and the negotiations on the agreement officially entered the second stage. International oil prices promptly plunged. The front-month WTI crude futures contract fell to $76.62 per barrel, while Brent crude futures broke below the $80 level, dropping to $79.43 per barrel. This was the first time since early March that both major crude benchmarks fell below $80 at the same time.
Meanwhile, after briefly dipping below $60,000 in early June, Bitcoin rebounded quickly and, as of June 17, has been trading in a tight range around $65,700. This price movement has prompted deeper questions in the market: how exactly do the US-Iran peace agreement and the sharp oil price drop affect Bitcoin’s pricing logic? With the geopolitical risk premium fading, is the linkage between Bitcoin and commodities being altered?
What are the core contents of the US-Iran memorandum, and why did it trigger such a dramatic oil price reaction?
To understand why oil prices fell from above $100 during the peak of the conflict to below $80 within a short period, the first step is to examine the core terms of this memorandum.
Based on publicly available information, the memorandum’s core contents include: the United States allows Iran to immediately begin selling oil and fuel, with sanction exemptions covering the necessary services across the entire oil-trading supply chain; both sides announce the immediate termination of all military actions on all fronts; the United States lifts the maritime blockade on Iranian ports; and the Strait of Hormuz reopens after the agreement is signed. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. At the same time, the US-Iran negotiations enter the second stage, with the next stage aiming to reach a final agreement within 60 days.
The reason this agreement can quickly suppress oil prices is that it directly cuts off the most critical risk of supply disruption that the market has been pricing in. Since the United States and Iran’s military actions in late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been blocked, reducing global oil supply by more than 1 billion barrels. During the conflict, WTI crude briefly surpassed $100 per barrel, and Brent surged to above $110 per barrel. The signing of the memorandum means this supply disruption crisis—lasting nearly four months—is about to receive a material easing.
However, the drop of oil prices below $80 is not merely an emotional release. The market is completing a full round of repricing of “the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium”—from the initial sharp fall in crude prices to downstream petrochemical product prices falling more than crude itself. This fully reflects the trading logic that the market has started to price in a rebound in crude supply, a recovery in downstream capacity, and a contraction in processing margins.
How does the decline in oil prices affect Bitcoin and other risk assets?
The impact of falling oil prices on crypto assets is not a direct substitution effect, but rather achieved through a complete macro transmission chain.
The logic is: lower energy costs → softer inflation expectations → reduced pressure for monetary policy tightening → lower real interest rates → risk asset valuation repairs.
Specifically, during the conflict, elevated oil prices suppressed risk assets such as Bitcoin through two channels. First, higher energy costs pushed up inflation expectations, forcing the market to price a tighter monetary policy path. Second, the geopolitical conflict itself is treated as a “tail risk” within the pricing models of various assets—investors demand higher risk compensation to hold risk assets, directly lowering Bitcoin’s expected risk-adjusted returns.
The peace agreement reverses this chain. The decline in oil prices eases inflation pressure, giving the Federal Reserve greater policy flexibility and thereby improving the macro environment for risk assets. Market expectations for rate hikes later in the year were directly weakened: the probability of a December rate hike fell from roughly 70% last week to around 60%. For asset classes such as Bitcoin that are highly sensitive to liquidity and real interest rates, this represents a marginal macro positive.
Worth noting is a set of comparison data: oil prices have declined more than 17% cumulatively within the current quarter so far, while Bitcoin has only pulled back 6.5%. This contrasts sharply with the first quarter—oil prices rose nearly 70%, while Bitcoin fell 22%. This divergence itself signals an important change: the linkage between Bitcoin and oil is undergoing a structural shift.
How is the statistical correlation between Bitcoin and oil prices changing?
From a quantitative perspective, the association between Bitcoin and oil is not something that emerged out of thin air. As of May 21, 2026, based on Gate market data, within the recent fluctuation range, Bitcoin’s price has shown a 30-day rolling correlation of about 0.62 with the daily returns of the WTI crude oil futures. This figure is significantly higher than the 0.2 to 0.4 range observed in most periods from 2024 to 2025.
This rise in correlation is not accidental. When the market began to re-discuss rate hikes, the shared underlying driver was “demand-side resilience beyond expectations.” Rising oil prices reflect that real-economy demand has not slowed meaningfully, while Bitcoin prices in the same macro environment are highly sensitive to risk appetite. When they rise together or fall together, they are essentially describing the same macro scenario: economic growth stronger than expected → inflation pressure persists → probability of rate hikes rises → expectations of tighter liquidity → risk assets repriced. In this chain, Bitcoin and crude are no longer independent assets; instead, they are two synchronized indicators of the same macro narrative.
However, the oil-price crash triggered by the US-Iran agreement is breaking this synchrony. Bitcoin has rebounded from a $60,000 low to around $65,800, but this rebound can be understood to a larger extent as the market repricing “the worst-case scenario didn’t happen,” rather than a fundamental reassessment of Bitcoin’s fundamentals. The true turning point in the crypto market still needs to be observed in terms of structural changes in capital inflows—stablecoins, ETFs, and institutional capital have not yet shown a systematic improvement.
How big is the gap between the real progress of the “reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz and market expectations?
Although oil prices have already priced in optimistic expectations for the Strait of Hormuz being fully reopened, reality is far more complex than what the market pricing suggests.
The “restoration of openness” claimed by both the US and Iran can currently only be considered a “technical reopening.” What the market expects is “commercial reopening,” which depends on security assurances, lower insurance costs, and rebuilding market confidence.
During the conflict, war-risk insurance premiums for tankers transiting through the Strait of Hormuz surged by more than 1,000%. The additional insurance cost for a supertanker reached as much as $7.5 million. Even after the signing of the peace agreement, maritime insurance institutions remain highly vigilant, and war-risk premiums are still maintained at more than 30 times the pre-conflict level. The Baltic International Maritime Council warned that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz cannot fully recover until both sides provide credible security assurances.
From actual transit data, the number of vessels transiting the strait has not shown a clear rebound, and the overall transit scale remains low. Market participants point out that even if the agreement is implemented, a complete return to normal shipping operations may still take weeks or even months. Optimists predict that oil supply could recover by the end of July, while cautious institutions believe it may take 2 to 3 months to gradually restore most production capacity, with full production recovery to pre-war levels potentially not occurring until the end of the year.
This implies that the current oil price drop below $80 is, to a large extent, the result of “expectations running ahead”—the market is pricing in the idea that the strait will be smoothly reopened and supply will quickly return, and it has loaded up on those expectations with support from capital flows. If the actual recovery process is slower than expected, oil prices still have room for two-way volatility.
After the geopolitical risk premium fades, how will Bitcoin’s pricing framework evolve?
The completion of the US-Iran agreement does not mean the end of geopolitical risk; it means a shift in the risk form.
On one hand, the agreement itself still contains a large amount of uncertainty. The US and Iran will conduct 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement. Key questions remain unanswered: how Iran’s existing highly enriched uranium will be handled, whether it can continue uranium enrichment activities domestically, and whether the International Atomic Energy Agency will restore comprehensive verification of Iran. Uncertainty also remains regarding the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The Iranian military has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire multiple times since the agreement was announced. In a report dated June 15, JPMorgan Chase’s strategy team assigned a 70% probability to the scenario of “continuing to approach the agreement but never managing to sign it,” only a 10% probability to the formal signing of the agreement, and a 20% probability of the conflict reigniting.
On the other hand, Bitcoin’s pricing framework is shifting from being “dominated by a geopolitical risk premium” to being “dominated by macro liquidity expectations.” After oil prices fall, the market’s focus will gradually shift from supply shocks to the demand side. Global demand for crude oil dropped sharply in April and May. As oil prices fall and supply recovers, the factors that restrict demand will also be removed. The demand side therefore has theoretical rebound room of 6 to 7 million barrels per day in the coming months. Differences in the timing of recovery between supply and demand will directly affect the inflation path and expectations for monetary policy, which then feeds into Bitcoin’s valuation logic.
From a medium- to long-term perspective, the correlation between Bitcoin and oil may gradually decline from current highs, but the market is confirming their roles as core indicators of global risk sentiment. Regardless of changes in inflation expectations, the direction of real interest rates, or how tight or loose liquidity is, Bitcoin will increasingly be evaluated within the pricing framework of commodities and macro assets.
FAQ
Q: What are the main contents of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding?
A: The memorandum’s core contents include the US allowing Iran to immediately sell oil and fuel, sanction exemptions covering necessary services across the entire oil trading supply chain, both sides terminating military actions, the US lifting the maritime blockade on Iranian ports, and the Strait of Hormuz reopening. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.
Q: Why did oil prices fall below $80?
A: The US-Iran agreement directly reversed the core market-priced risk of a supply disruption. Since the end of February, the Strait of Hormuz being obstructed has led to global oil supply declining by more than 1 billion barrels. After the agreement is signed, the market expects supply to recover quickly, and the geopolitical risk premium is systematically squeezed out.
Q: How does the fall in oil prices affect Bitcoin?
A: Mainly through the transmission chain of “energy costs → inflation expectations → monetary policy → risk asset pricing.” The decline in oil prices eases inflation pressure, reduces expectations of monetary policy tightening, and improves the macro environment for risk assets.
Q: How high is the correlation between Bitcoin and oil prices?
A: As of May 21, 2026, based on Gate market data, Bitcoin’s 30-day rolling correlation with the daily returns of the WTI crude oil futures is about 0.62, significantly higher than the 0.2 to 0.4 range in most periods from 2024 to 2025.
Q: Has the Strait of Hormuz truly been fully reopened?
A: Currently it is only a “technical reopening.” Real “commercial reopening” still requires conditions such as security assurances, lower insurance costs, and rebuilding market confidence. Full normalization of shipping may take weeks or even months.
Q: What are the risks of the US-Iran agreement?
A: There is still significant uncertainty in the 60-day final agreement negotiations. JPMorgan Chase assessed the probability of “continuing to approach the agreement but never managing to sign it” at 70%, the probability of formal signing at only 10%, and the probability of conflict reigniting at 20%. Potential risks still include Iran’s nuclear issue and the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.
