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Oil Price Decline Fails to Cool Fed Rate Hike Bets as Core Inflation Stays Elevated; PCE Hits 3.4% in May

GateNews
CommoditiesForex
According to Reuters and market analysts, on June 26, oil prices retreated following the Iran-U.S. ceasefire and Hormuz Strait reopening, yet market expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes remained largely unchanged. Core inflation, which exceeded the Fed's 2% target by over 1 percentage point in January-February, persists at elevated levels. May's core PCE inflation reached 3.4%, above policy targets, while June manufacturing and services PMI also exceeded expectations. Economists warn that falling oil prices may actually stimulate suppressed demand and investment, potentially intensifying price pressures. Meanwhile, AI capital expenditure surges continue driving stock market gains and household wealth expansion, reinforcing inflationary momentum. Markets maintain pricing for two rate hikes within 2026.
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