Bitcoin broke below $60,000 on June 26, temporarily trading at $59,732, down about 52% from its all-time high; the key support level of $60,000 that had underpinned Bitcoin since February was breached. On the same day, maritime intelligence firm Windward reported that Iran had ordered at least three oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz to turn back, with WTI and Brent crude both rising over 2.6% intraday.
Windward: 3 oil tankers turned back, Singapore-flagged cargo ship attacked by IRGC
Windward reported that Iran issued warnings to vessels near the Strait of Hormuz via radio: all ships must activate identification signals and obtain prior Iranian permission to pass, otherwise all risks would be borne by the vessels themselves. The affected ships are all sailing near the coast of Oman — an area previously considered outside Iran's actual control.
The Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) stated that any vessel not following approved routes is considered unauthorized and not within its safety coverage. Shortly before the above warning, U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal that a Singapore-flagged cargo ship was attacked by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), marking the first major security incident targeting a commercial vessel since the U.S.-Iran agreement to resume shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier on Wednesday (June 25), 49 ships had passed through the Strait of Hormuz, the highest daily transit since the current conflict, but the recovery was reversed after the Iranian interception incident.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, visiting Bahrain, said that if ships cannot pass safely, it means the agreement signed last week between the U.S. and Iran has been violated.
IBIT put option buys reach 275,000
According to thinkorswim data, IBIT options saw 275,000 put options bought and 129,000 call options bought. Total IBIT option premiums amounted to $187 million, with $144 million from put options. IBIT implied volatility stands at 53, with daily price swings of about 3%; for options expiring July 31, the market prices a 48% probability of IBIT shares falling below $30.50 (another 10% drop) by month-end, and a 55% probability of a 10% rise.
Within the first 60 minutes of the morning decline, leveraged long liquidations totaled approximately $450 million. After Bitcoin fell below $59,000, the market sees $52,000 as a realistic risk zone for 2026.
Bitcoin has fallen 32% year-to-date, while Solana is down 47%; the trigger for this decline was crypto failing to follow the stock market rebound. Enverus Intelligence Research analyst Kyle Bertamini said on the same day that the oil market currently appears more "oversold" than "oversupplied."
Strategy holds 847,363 BTC at average price of $75,651
Strategy currently holds 847,363 Bitcoin, with an average purchase price of $75,651; when Bitcoin is around $58,800, the position is about $14.3 billion below cost. Strategy options showed 505,000 puts and 403,000 calls traded on the day, with traders buying 83,000 puts and selling 72,000 calls.
FAQ
What is the direct impact of Iran halting oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz?
Windward data shows at least three oil tankers turned back after receiving Iranian orders, while two others changed course; a Singapore-flagged cargo ship was attacked by the IRGC, the first major security incident since the U.S.-Iran agreement. WTI and Brent crude both rose over 2.6% intraday; before the current conflict, about one-fifth of global oil shipments passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
What does IBIT options data indicate about market pricing for Bitcoin?
The put-to-call volume ratio for IBIT is about 2:1; out of $187 million in option premiums, $144 million came from puts. For options expiring July 31, the market prices a 48% probability of IBIT shares falling below $30.50 (a further 10% drop) and a 55% probability of a 10% rise, with implied volatility at 53.
Bitcoin's $60,000 support broken, what is Strategy's position P&L?
Strategy holds 847,363 Bitcoin at an average price of $75,651; when Bitcoin is around $58,800, the position is about $14.3 billion below cost. Bitcoin has fallen 32% year-to-date, Solana down 47%; leveraged longs saw about $450 million in liquidations within the first 60 minutes of morning trading.
