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Kalshi Traders Price Fable 5 Return at 68% Probability Before July 1

Prediction Market

2026-06-14 01:36:59

KALSHI-3.80%

Kalshi traders priced a 68% probability that Anthropic would restore access to Claude Fable 5 by July 1, 2026, according to contracts opened June 13 after the U.S. Commerce Department suspended the model globally on June 12. The prediction market showed lower probabilities for earlier restoration: 14% by June 15 and 51% by June 20. The suspension followed Amazon CEO Andy Jassy's disclosure to Treasury and Commerce officials that Amazon researchers had identified prompts capable of bypassing Fable 5's safety guardrails to extract software vulnerability information. Anthropic called the directive a "misunderstanding" and vowed to restore access as soon as possible while maintaining compliance.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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