According to Kalshi prediction market, traders are pricing an 80% probability that Bitcoin remains below $100,000 through the end of 2026, with only 19% odds assigned to the cryptocurrency crossing that level before January 1, 2027, as of June 22.
Bitcoin is trading near $64,600, roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,198. Separate Kalshi contracts price a 57% chance Bitcoin falls below $50,000 before year-end 2026. Market data indicates most probability concentration in the $55,000 to $70,000 range for Bitcoin's 2026 close.