Crypto analyst Dr. Profit argues that Bitcoin is forming a bearish flag pattern on its daily chart that could initially lead to a drop to the $54,000-$56,000 range, with a potential ultimate bottom between $40,000 and $50,000, based on analysis of the May peak of $82,000 dropping to below $60,000 in June followed by a rebound to $68,000. On-chain analyst Axel Adler separately stated that Bitcoin has not yet reached its true bottom, noting that the supply held by long-term investors has increased to approximately 12.17 million BTC but remains below the 15 million to 19.7 million BTC held at previous bear market lows. The analysts' assessments come amid a narrow trading range for Bitcoin driven by expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve and growing concerns about Strategy's BTC sale.
Dr. Profit Identifies Bearish Flag Pattern With $40,000-$50,000 Bottom Target
According to CoinDesk, crypto analyst Dr. Profit, using a pseudonym, argues that Bitcoin is forming a bearish flag pattern on its daily chart. The analyst stated that Bitcoin is currently forming a large bearish flag pattern on the daily timeframe, with a prediction of a drop to the $54,000-$56,000 level first, followed by sideways movement, then another drop, with the bottom near the $40,000-$50,000 level.
The analyst notes that the forecast is based on the drop from the May peak of $82,000 to below $60,000 in June, and then the subsequent rebound to $68,000. Dr. Profit attracted attention by correctly predicting that the peak of the BTC bull market would be at $126,000, followed by a wave of selling.
Axel Adler Analyzes Long-Term Investor Supply Below Historical Bottom Levels
On-chain analyst Axel Adler analyzed that Bitcoin's supply structure resembles past cycle lows, but fundamental indicators have not yet confirmed a definitive bottom formation. Adler explained that the supply held by long-term investors has increased to approximately 12.17 million BTC, which has eased selling pressure in the market.
However, Adler noted that this amount is still below the 15 million to 19.7 million BTC held by long-term investors at previous bear market lows. The supply held by long-term investors rose to approximately 15 million BTC at the 2015 low, approximately 16 million BTC at the 2018-2019 low, and approximately 19.7 million BTC at the 2022-2023 low. Adler believes the market is currently in a phase of redistribution and consolidation rather than a completed bottom formation. He added that to confirm BTC's bottom, the supply of long-term investors would need to exceed 15 million BTC.
FAQ
What price levels did Dr. Profit predict for Bitcoin's bearish flag pattern?
Dr. Profit predicted an initial drop to the $54,000-$56,000 range, followed by sideways movement and another drop, with the ultimate bottom near the $40,000-$50,000 level. The analyst based this forecast on the drop from the May peak of $82,000 to below $60,000 in June, followed by a rebound to $68,000.
How much Bitcoin supply do long-term investors currently hold according to Axel Adler?
According to Axel Adler's analysis, the supply held by long-term investors has increased to approximately 12.17 million BTC. However, this amount remains below the 15 million to 19.7 million BTC held by long-term investors at previous bear market lows in 2015, 2018-2019, and 2022-2023.
What condition does Axel Adler require to confirm Bitcoin's bottom?
Axel Adler stated that to confirm BTC's bottom, the supply of long-term investors would need to exceed 15 million BTC. He believes the market is currently in a phase of redistribution and consolidation rather than a completed bottom formation.
