Spot gold and silver prices declined on Monday, with gold trading near $4,041.90 an ounce (down 1.14%) and silver near $58.080 (down 1.65%), as traders balanced renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy against Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations. The Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17 in a 12-0 vote, while the U.S. and Iran agreed to halt attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and plan to meet Tuesday in Doha. The declines occurred despite higher oil prices, with Brent crude near $72.40 and WTI near $69.64, as markets positioned ahead of Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls report before the July 4 holiday.
Federal Reserve June Projections Raise 2026 Rate Path to 3.8%
The Federal Reserve's June projections lifted the median 2026 funds-rate path to 3.8% from 3.4% in March and raised the 2026 PCE inflation projection to 3.6% from 2.7%. The 10-year Treasury yield traded near 4.385%, up 1.4 basis points in early Monday trading. Stock futures were higher and the U.S. dollar index was slightly lower on U.S.-Iran diplomacy hopes, but the market remained positioned for further Fed tightening risk. The week's main scheduled catalyst is Thursday's June nonfarm payrolls report, which lands before the July 4 market holiday.
U.S.-Iran Agree to Halt Strait of Hormuz Attacks, Plan Tuesday Doha Talks
The U.S. and Iran agreed to halt attacks and plan to meet Tuesday in Doha over the Strait of Hormuz waterway, with U.S. officials saying vessels can move freely for now. The Strait of Hormuz story is now a managed-transit risk, not a full closure shock. The underlying dispute has not been settled: the traffic coordination hotline was still not operational as of Saturday, and Iran has again asserted a role in managing passage through the strait. The current market impact is cross-cutting: oil is firmer, while gold is not getting a full haven bid because higher crude also feeds the Fed-inflation trade.
Spot Gold Technical Targets Set at $4,350 Resistance and $3,886 Support
Spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,069.54 to $4,350.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,500.00 and then $4,891.54. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,950.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,886.46 and then $3,707.82. First resistance is seen at $4,069.54 and then at $4,350.00. First support is seen at $3,950.00 and then at $3,886.46.
Spot Silver Bulls Target $60 Resistance Zone, Bears Eye $55 Support
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $60.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $72.00 and then $90.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $55.00, with deeper downside targets at $50.00 and then $45.00. First resistance is seen at $60.00 and then at $72.00. Next support is seen at $55.00 and then at $50.00.
FAQ
What did the Federal Reserve decide on June 17?
The Federal Reserve held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17 in a 12-0 vote. The June projections lifted the median 2026 funds-rate path to 3.8% from 3.4% in March and raised the 2026 PCE inflation projection to 3.6% from 2.7%.
Why did gold and silver prices decline on Monday despite higher oil prices?
Gold and silver prices declined as traders balanced renewed U.S.-Iran diplomacy against Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations. Gold is not getting a full haven bid because higher crude oil prices also feed the Fed-inflation trade, with the 10-year Treasury yield up 1.4 basis points to 4.385% and the market positioned for further Fed tightening risk.
What is the current status of the Strait of Hormuz dispute?
The U.S. and Iran agreed to halt attacks and plan to meet Tuesday in Doha over the Strait of Hormuz waterway, with U.S. officials saying vessels can move freely for now. The underlying dispute has not been settled: the traffic coordination hotline was still not operational as of Saturday, and Iran has again asserted a role in managing passage through the strait.
