BTC rebounds 0.28% in 15 minutes: Oversold recovery and technical rebound under extreme fear sentiment

June 25, 2026 21:00-22:00 (UTC), BTC's 15-minute return rate reached +0.28%, price range 59451.1-59620.0 USDT, amplitude 0.28%. On that day, BTC once fell to $59,023, the first time below $60,000 since October 2024, then rebounded about 4.7% from the low to $61,800. The market is in a technical repair phase, with sentiment remaining in the "extreme fear" range.

The main driver of this rebound is the oversold bounce mechanism after the price broke below a key support level. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plummeted to 12, remaining at extreme fear levels, which often corresponds to a short-term rebound window. The +0.28% during the reporting period is a technical repair in the downtrend, not a trend reversal signal.

Secondly, ETF funds have seen continuous outflows for seven weeks, with AUM shrinking from nearly $113 billion to $77.5 billion. On-chain whales have net sold 45,074 BTC over the past 8 days, but selling pressure has eased marginally. Banks and sovereign funds increased holdings by 7,800 BTC against the trend, absorbing part of the selling pressure. Meanwhile, total market liquidations over the past 24 hours neared $1 billion, with long liquidations exceeding $780 million. There is a cluster of long positions worth about $1.6 billion below $58,000, providing potential support. During the wait-and-see period before the PCE data release, some traders closed short positions, pushing prices slightly higher.

The current market remains in a resonance cycle of macro tightening and institutional reduction. Key focus should be on whether ETF fund flows can reverse, whether the $58,000 support will hold, and the impact of tonight's PCE data on Fed policy expectations. Short-term volatility risk is increasing; it is recommended to watch key support and resistance levels and on-chain fund flows.