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AI Productivity Gains to Release Slowly, Tax Base Erosion Worsens U.S. Debt Crisis: Report

GateNews
According to a Guolian Minsheng Securities report on June 17, artificial intelligence will struggle to resolve U.S. debt pressures in the near term. As of end-2025, the U.S. national debt reached nearly $38 trillion with net interest payments approaching $1 trillion. The report noted that AI productivity gains will be slow to materialize, with forecasts from the University of Pennsylvania showing AI will contribute only 0.05 to 0.1 percentage points to total factor productivity growth in 2026-2027, rising to approximately 0.2 percentage points only in the early 2030s. Additionally, AI is concentrating capital gains and eroding the tax base; personal income and payroll taxes account for approximately 85% of federal revenue but face pressure from AI-driven labor displacement. The report concluded that the U.S. debt challenge remains a major structural obstacle in the near term.
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