World Gold Council Forecasts Gold Trading Around $4,100/oz With ±5% Range in H2 2026

According to the World Gold Council's mid-year outlook, gold is likely to trade in a range around $4,100 per ounce with ±5% fluctuation for the remainder of 2026, with potential catalysts to break out from current levels.

On the upside, worsening economic conditions, geopolitical shocks, lower interest-rate expectations, or wave buying could lift gold towards $4,500/oz or above. Conversely, resilient growth, rising yields, and calmer markets could push prices lower, though declines exceeding 10% may be limited by bargain-hunting demand. Central bank purchases (averaging 1,000 tonnes annually since 2022) and demand from India, the world's second-largest gold market with annual net demand of 800 tonnes, will be key wildcards. India's government increased import duties from 6% to 15% in April, expected to reduce jewelry and bar demand by 50-60 tonnes year-over-year.