Bitcoin (BTC) briefly traded at $59,482 on June 29, failing to reclaim the $60,000 mark. Axios cited senior U.S. officials saying that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to stop attacking each other, with both sides planning to hold talks in Qatar's capital on Tuesday, focusing on the Hormuz Strait dispute, but the ceasefire agreement has already faced a crisis within less than 11 days.
Root Cause of the U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Crisis: Divergent Interpretations of the MOU and Disputes over Hormuz Strait Passage
The root of this ceasefire crisis lies in the parties' inconsistent interpretations of the Hormuz Strait passage clause in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The U.S. position is that "ships can freely pass through," but Iran has again asserted that vessels need to coordinate passage permits in advance. The "hotline" established during last week's Swiss talks to coordinate strait traffic between the U.S. military and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had still not been activated as of last Saturday.
The originally scheduled Tuesday talks in Switzerland have been moved to Qatar due to the escalating situation, with the agenda shifting from the Iran nuclear issue to the Hormuz Strait controversy. U.S. technical team head Nick Stewart is expected to attend; the White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Grayscale Bitcoin Cycle Analysis: Fed Policy Shift and Three Additional Pressure Sources
Pandl's report indicates that the main cause of this decline is a shift in market expectations for Fed policy. At the end of last year, the market expected Trump to nominate the relatively dovish Kevin Hassett as Fed chair, but Trump ultimately chose the more hawkish Kevin Warsh; amid persistently high inflation, the market now expects the Fed to raise rates this year rather than cut them, ending the "devaluation trade" of betting on hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and silver as hedges against currency debasement.
Pandl also highlighted three other sources of pressure on the crypto market: uncertainty over the passage of the CLARITY Act, balance sheet pressure on Strategy (MSTR), and investor caution regarding digital security risks posed by quantum computing.
Three Prerequisites for Pandl's Base Case and Downside Scenario Assumptions
In the "The Stack" report, Pandl's base case requires the following three conditions to hold simultaneously:
CLARITY Act: Passed in the U.S. Senate
Strategy balance sheet: Strengthened, with no further deleveraging
Fed policy: Pauses rate hikes
Pandl stated that if these three conditions are met, Bitcoin's price action suggests it may have neared a cycle low. In the downside scenario, if the CLARITY Act fails to pass this year, digital asset management firms further deleverage, and the Fed is forced to raise rates, Pandl said this could lead to a further modest decline in Bitcoin's price.
Pandl also noted that Grayscale believes this decline is unlikely to reach the roughly 80% peak-to-trough drawdown of previous cycles, citing the more moderate nature of this bull run and more stable institutional demand.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the direct reason for Bitcoin's failure to reclaim $60,000?
According to Grayscale's Pandl analysis, the main reason for this decline is a shift in market expectations for Fed policy—from expecting rate cuts to expecting rate hikes—leading to the end of the "devaluation trade." Bitcoin briefly traded at $59,482 on June 29, a decline of more than 50% from its peak of around $125,000 in October 2025.
Why did the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement face a crisis in less than 11 days?
The core of the crisis is a divergence in the parties' interpretation of the Hormuz Strait passage clause in the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The U.S. position is that ships can freely pass through; Iran has again asserted that vessels need to coordinate passage permits in advance. The communication hotline established during Swiss talks has not been activated as of last Saturday.
What is the relationship between the CLARITY Act and the Bitcoin cycle?
According to the Pandl report, the CLARITY Act is a U.S. crypto assets regulatory bill currently being considered in the Senate. Pandl lists the passage of this bill as a prerequisite for Grayscale's base case, arguing that its passage would help drive institutional adoption of digital assets; if it fails to pass this year, it constitutes a risk factor for Bitcoin's downside scenario.
