According to Ebury strategist Matthew Ryan, the UK gilt and pound markets have reacted calmly to Labour’s local election losses on May 8, as the outcome was already priced in by markets. However, he warned that increased bets on leadership changes could shift sentiment rapidly. Potential policy risks include a more leftward-leaning government pursuing larger fiscal spending commitments, higher tax measures, and increased gilt issuance to fund higher borrowing levels, which could raise gilt yields and deter foreign capital inflows.
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