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Traders Extracted $8.2 Million From Polymarket's Five-Minute Bitcoin Bets Through Manipulation, Study Shows

Prediction Market Security Incidents Exchange Risk

2026-07-27 09:35:43

POLYMARKET-0.32%

BTC1.29%

LINK4.41%

NDAQ1.81%

CBOE0.27%

A new study by David Dai, Ruizhe Jia, and Shihao Yu of Stanford and Singapore Management University found that on February 12, 2026, Polymarket launched a five-minute binary Bitcoin contract where just 821 traders systematically manipulated settlement prices and extracted $8.2 million from retail bettors. The contract, which paid $1 if Bitcoin closed above its opening price and $0 otherwise, became vulnerable when it settled against a Chainlink oracle averaging prices across major exchanges. Traders exploited this by buying or selling real Bitcoin in the final seconds, shifting the reference price to flip contract outcomes. The researchers traced wallet activity on the public blockchain and identified manipulation in near-even cycles, where pushes reversed outcomes 65% of the time compared to 41% in normal trading. Even heavily favored bets lost one in three times. Retail traders absorbed 93% of the losses, while the fifteen-minute contract variant showed no such pattern due to its longer time window. The findings signal broader risks as Nasdaq and Cboe have filed with the SEC to list similar binary contracts on equities.

Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third-party sources and is for reference only. It does not represent the views or opinions of Gate and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Virtual asset trading involves high risk. Please do not rely solely on the information on this page when making decisions. For details, see the Disclaimer.

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