CLARITY Act Passage Odds Surge to 52%, But Seven Senate Roadblocks Threaten Bitcoin Bull Case to $200,000

According to multiple analysts, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 if the CLARITY Act becomes law. However, FM Intelligence estimates this outcome at only 25% probability, with a base case of $95,000 to $130,000. Bitcoin trades at $64,671 on July 27, meaning a $200,000 target would require roughly triple the current price.

Citigroup has cut its 12-month Bitcoin target twice in 2026, lowering it from $143,000 in January to $82,000 on July 1, citing the stalled bill rather than market technicals. Meanwhile, Kalshi prediction markets show CLARITY Act passage odds surged to 52% from 33% in one week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on July 21 Congress was on the "1-yard line." Yet seven Democratic senators rejected the current text on July 22, and the Senate's August 7 deadline before summer recess leaves limited time to resolve disputes over presidential ethics provisions and House-Senate negotiations.