Traders Bet on Bitcoin Staying Below $75K in June; 19% Odds for $100K by Year-End

According to prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi, traders are assigning just 14% odds to Bitcoin crossing $75,000 before June 30, 2026, with only 5% probability of reaching $80,000. Kalshi's June market has recorded $869,577 in volume, reflecting a shift toward bearish positioning from recent highs.

Longer-term forecasts on both platforms lean even more cautious. Polymarket's full-year 2026 market, backed by $42.7 million in trading volume, gives Bitcoin just 19% odds of hitting $100,000 and only 4% odds of reaching $150,000 before December 31. Kalshi's year-end price forecast, with $25.8 million in volume, clusters heaviest in the $50,000–$55,000 range at 9.3% probability. Across both platforms, the $150,000 target carries only 4%–7% odds, underscoring trader skepticism on aggressive upside targets this year.