Robinhood's prediction market business recorded unprecedented trading activity during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, with volumes related to World Cup events surpassing the $1.4 billion generated during this year's Super Bowl, according to Bernstein research reported by The Block and multiple sources. The 48-team tournament with more than 100 matches drove the record activity across Robinhood's event contracts platform. Analysts attributed the surge to sports emerging as a major growth engine for prediction markets, with the World Cup serving as the company's largest test for the rapidly expanding asset class.
Robinhood Launches World Cup Contracts with Reduced Fees on June 4
On June 4, Robinhood introduced World Cup contracts through its newly launched Rothera exchange, allowing users to trade outcomes ranging from match winners and group winners to Golden Boot races and tournament champions. The company capped commissions at $0.01 per contract and offered Gold subscribers discounts of up to 50%.
JB Mackenzie, Robinhood's Vice President and General Manager of Futures and Prediction Markets, stated: "The World Cup is a global phenomenon and is the perfect event to launch Rothera. We're now delivering even more value for customers as we continue on our mission to make Robinhood the best place to trade prediction markets."
Robinhood disclosed that its prediction markets became its fastest-growing revenue category since launching in late 2024. More than 12 billion event contracts were traded in 2025, while over 16 billion contracts had already changed hands in 2026 before the World Cup began.
Bernstein analysts projected the World Cup tournament alone could generate up to $10 billion in additional prediction market trading volume, describing the event as a potential "watershed" moment for the industry. Analysts expect Robinhood's prediction market revenue to increase from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026.
Prediction Market Volumes Exceed $2 Billion Across Platforms
Combined World Cup-related volumes across leading platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi exceeded $2 billion, while the single market for predicting the tournament winner surpassed $1.6 billion in volume.
The activity attracted interest from traditional trading firms. Jump Trading launched the Jump Probability Cup, a World Cup forecasting competition designed to identify talent with strong probabilistic reasoning skills.
FAQ
What trading volumes did Robinhood's World Cup prediction markets generate?
World Cup-related trading volumes on Robinhood's platform surpassed the $1.4 billion recorded during this year's Super Bowl, according to Bernstein research. Combined volumes across all platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi exceeded $2 billion, with the tournament winner market alone surpassing $1.6 billion in volume.
When did Robinhood launch World Cup prediction market contracts?
Robinhood introduced World Cup contracts on June 4 through its newly launched Rothera exchange. The contracts covered outcomes including match winners, group winners, Golden Boot races, and tournament champions, with commissions capped at $0.01 per contract.
