Bernstein analysts stated Robinhood could see strong tailwinds as prediction markets posted record trading activity during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup, with daily volumes rising from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, when the U.S. played Paraguay. The surge was driven by heightened user engagement during the tournament's opening matches. Prediction markets have become Robinhood's fastest-growing product line by revenue since launch, according to the research and brokerage firm.
Bernstein Projects Robinhood Prediction Market Revenue to Reach $586 Million in 2026
In a note to clients on Monday, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani projected Robinhood's prediction market revenue to increase from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, a 286% year-over-year increase. This projected figure would account for approximately 17% of transaction-based revenues and 10% of total revenue for the company in 2026. The figures already exceed the $1.4 billion traded during last season's Super Bowl, Bernstein highlighted. Robinhood shares traded at $93.19 on the Nasdaq as of Friday's close.
Rothera Partnership Records 200 Million Contracts in First 18 Days
Bernstein pointed to Robinhood's Rothera partnership as a key differentiator. Rothera is a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. Since its May 28 launch, Rothera has traded approximately 200 million contracts in its first 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB contracts accounting for nearly 100% of volumes. The firm said distribution is the edge here, pointing to Robinhood's ability to leverage its user base and competitive offers, including a $0.01 commission per contract and up to a 50% fee reduction for Gold subscribers.
Polymarket and Kalshi Expand Offerings During World Cup Period
Bernstein highlighted an expanding competitive set across the sector, pointing to Polymarket's rollout of private company event contracts and Kalshi's launch of CFTC-regulated perpetual futures on major cryptocurrencies, which recorded $1 billion in volume within one week. The firm said the expansion of contract types and trading venues is contributing to higher engagement during the World Cup period. Last week, Bernstein named DraftKings and Coinbase as other publicly traded companies positioned to benefit from World Cup volumes. The firm estimates the tournament will drive more than $3 billion in incremental handle and $5 billion to $10 billion in consumer volume uplift across the prediction markets sector.
FAQ
What trading volumes did Robinhood's prediction markets reach during the FIFA World Cup?
Daily volumes on Robinhood's prediction markets rose from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, when the U.S. played Paraguay, according to Bernstein analysts.
How much revenue does Bernstein project for Robinhood's prediction markets in 2026?
Bernstein projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue to increase from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing a 286% year-over-year increase and accounting for approximately 17% of transaction-based revenues and 10% of total revenue in 2026.
What volume did Rothera record after its partnership launch with Robinhood?
Since its May 28 launch, Rothera traded approximately 200 million contracts in its first 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB contracts accounting for nearly 100% of volumes.
