Analysis firm Artemis CEO Jon Ma posted on X on June 25, pointing out that Robinhood's Rothera exchange saw a daily trading volume of $62 million, a new all-time high; he estimates that World Cup Rothera trading volume alone could bring Robinhood an additional $450 million to $900 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR).
Rothera Daily Trading Volume Reaches $62 Million, All-Time High
(Source: Jon Ma)
Jon Ma explained the fee structure on X: $0.01 per contract goes to Robinhood (previously $0.01 went to the exchange), and now the fees are split among Kalshi, Robinhood, Rothera exchange, and SIG. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev announced on X on June 22 that Gold members can enjoy up to 50% fee discounts on World Cup event contracts.
Robinhood's World Cup prediction market allows users to bet on match outcomes, total goals, group winners, Golden Boot winners, and other event results. A Robinhood PR representative explained that only some (not all) World Cup contracts have been moved to Rothera, so Rothera's data does not represent Robinhood's total World Cup trading volume; the prediction market is only open to Robinhood retail users, and RIAs (Registered Investment Advisors) cannot trade via the TradePMR platform.
Robinhood Moves Prediction Market Contracts to Rothera, Launches Gold Membership
Rothera is a joint venture exchange established by Robinhood and SIG before the World Cup, taking over Robinhood's prediction market event contracts, formally ending Robinhood's existing partnership with Kalshi.
Robinhood has also integrated the World Cup into Gold membership benefits: it has launched 10 travel prizes to attend the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey on July 19, each including VIP seats, two nights' accommodation, $700 flight voucher, and $200 ride credit, available to active Robinhood Gold members.
Robinhood's Q1 2026 earnings report shows Gold members grew 36% year-over-year to 4.3 million, Gold subscription revenue grew 32% year-over-year to $50 million, and the Gold credit card (launched in 2024) has over 800,000 cardholders.
Total World Cup Bets Across Platforms Reach $5.4 Billion
Charles Schwab has announced it will launch "yes/no" prediction market contracts tied to the S&P 500 index, in partnership with Cboe Global Markets. In terms of World Cup market size, Kalshi's World Cup bets have reached $2.9 billion, surpassing the $2.51 billion record for the March Madness college basketball tournament; including Polymarket, total betting volume across all World Cup prediction market platforms is reported to have reached $5.4 billion.
In a Bloomberg interview in January 2026, Charles Schwab CEO Rick Wurster publicly distinguished financial-indicator prediction markets from sports betting, stating that "95% of the volume in so-called prediction markets is actually sports betting," and that they would "leave that to platforms like FanDuel, DraftKings, and Robinhood."
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Rothera exchange, and how has its relationship with Kalshi changed?
Rothera is a joint venture exchange established by Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group (SIG) before the 2026 World Cup. Robinhood moved its prediction market event contracts to Rothera before the World Cup, marking the formal end of its partnership with existing partner Kalshi. As of June 23, Rothera has executed over 1 billion World Cup-related prediction contracts.
What is the basis for Jon Ma's estimate of $450 million to $900 million ARR?
Jon Ma's estimate is based on Rothera's World Cup trading volume and fee structure ($0.01 per contract to Robinhood), extrapolating the daily trading volume during the World Cup period to annualized revenue potential. A Robinhood PR representative added that since only some World Cup contracts have been moved to Rothera, Rothera's data does not represent Robinhood's total World Cup trading volume.
How is Charles Schwab's prediction market different from Robinhood's World Cup prediction market?
Charles Schwab has announced it will launch S&P 500 "yes/no" prediction market contracts in partnership with Cboe Global Markets, which are financial-indicator-type prediction markets. Robinhood's World Cup prediction market is a sports event type, covering match outcomes, goals, Golden Boot, and other event results. Schwab CEO Wurster has publicly stated that the company positions itself in financial-indicator prediction markets and will not enter the sports betting space.
