Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision and former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager, stated via a post on X that Bitcoin holds an 87% correlation to global liquidity, while the Nasdaq maintains a 97% correlation. Pal argued that these assets track the amount of money in the system rather than trading on earnings or news. The statement builds on a thesis Pal presented in May, when he told Real Vision viewers that Bitcoin maintains roughly 90% correlation with global money supply and set a $450,000 Bitcoin price target dependent on central banks expanding liquidity meaningfully before the end of the year. Pal has spent much of the last seven months arguing that liquidity conditions, not fundamentals, drive digital asset prices.
Pal Links Bitcoin Price Movement to Global Liquidity Pool
Pal explained in his X post: "Bitcoin is 87% correlated to global liquidity. The Nasdaq is 97% correlated. Which tells you something most people never realise. These assets are not really trading on earnings, or news, or whatever the story of the week is. They're tracking the amount of money in the system."
Global liquidity refers to the total pool of money available to flow into financial markets, typically measured through central bank balance sheets, global M2 (broad money supply), and bank credit growth.
Analysts at crypto market maker Keyrock have built an eight-month lag model tracking how Treasury bill issuance percolates into Bitcoin returns, a framework that echoes Pal's correlation claim. The firm's net liquidity gauge, defined as the Federal Reserve's balance sheet minus Treasury cash balances and reverse repo balances, is designed to isolate how much spending capacity is actually reaching markets at a given time.
![Raoul Pal's thesis on BTC and its correlation with global liquidity]()
May Thesis Set $450,000 Bitcoin Target on Liquidity Expansion
Pal's figures build on a position he laid out in more detail in May, when he told Real Vision viewers that Bitcoin maintains roughly 90% correlation with global money supply and argued that governments' reliance on short-term debt issuance forces central banks to inject liquidity on a recurring cycle.
"Every four years, global debt rolls over, and central banks are forced to pump liquidity to avoid systemic collapse," Pal said at the time. That thesis underpins his $450,000 Bitcoin price target, which he has said depends on central banks expanding liquidity meaningfully before the end of the year.
Nasdaq Shows 97% Correlation to Liquidity Conditions
The 97% correlation Pal assigned to the Nasdaq, the tech-heavy U.S. stock index, suggests Bitcoin and mega-cap tech stocks are now trading as near-identical proxies for the same liquidity conditions, rather than as separate asset classes responding to distinct catalysts. That positioning cuts against the idea that Bitcoin trades primarily on its own supply dynamics, halving cycles, or adoption headlines.
Saylor Echoes Shift Away from Halving-Driven Cycles
Pal is not alone in making that argument. Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR) Executive Chairman Michael Saylor said earlier this month that Bitcoin's traditional four-year, halving-driven cycle is "no longer the dominant model," pointing instead to ETF inflows, corporate treasury accumulation, sovereign reserves, and global liquidity conditions as the bigger drivers. Saylor added: "Over the next decade, Bitcoin's trajectory will be driven less by miner issuance and more by capital flows."
Correlation Figures Lack Published Methodology
Neither Pal nor the correlation figures in his post come with an underlying dataset or published methodology, and the strength of the Bitcoin-liquidity relationship has fluctuated across the year as liquidity impulses rose and fell. Keyrock's own tracking found Bitcoin's reaction to Treasury issuance lags by roughly eight months, meaning any current correlation reading likely reflects liquidity conditions set months earlier rather than in real time.
The next major test for Pal's thesis will be whether central banks follow through on the balance sheet expansion he says is required to keep his $450,000 target in play. Bitcoin fell back under $64,000 on July 28 as roughly $100 million in leveraged positions were wiped out.
FAQ
What correlation did Raoul Pal state between Bitcoin and global liquidity?
Raoul Pal stated via a post on X that Bitcoin holds an 87% correlation to global liquidity, while the Nasdaq maintains a 97% correlation. He argued that these assets track the amount of money in the system rather than trading on earnings or news.
What is Raoul Pal's Bitcoin price target and what condition does it depend on?
Pal set a $450,000 Bitcoin price target in May, which he said depends on central banks expanding liquidity meaningfully before the end of the year. His thesis argues that governments' reliance on short-term debt issuance forces central banks to inject liquidity on a recurring cycle.
How does Michael Saylor's view align with Pal's liquidity thesis?
Michael Saylor stated earlier this month that Bitcoin's traditional four-year, halving-driven cycle is "no longer the dominant model." He pointed to ETF inflows, corporate treasury accumulation, sovereign reserves, and global liquidity conditions as the bigger drivers, echoing Pal's argument that liquidity outweighs supply dynamics.
