Polymarket World Cup Wallets Spark Debate After $24M Profit Run

Three Polymarket wallets made about $24.25 million from World Cup bets, according to on-chain tracker Lookonchain, raising new questions about oversight at crypto prediction markets as soccer wagers draw huge sums from traders.

World Cup upsets fuel huge crypto bets

The biggest wins came during the tournament’s early run of surprising results. One trader, known as mintblade, reportedly made $9.24 million in a single day after correctly calling four World Cup outcomes. The account’s largest wager backed Iran not to beat New Zealand, a bet that paid out after a 2-2 draw.

Another wallet, fishalive, became a flash point after Spain drew 0-0 with Cape Verde. The newly created account bet that Spain would not win and that Cape Verde would stay within the spread. That trade turned roughly $4 million into more than $13 million in redemptions, with profit near $9 million.

These trades show how Polymarket blends crypto rails with sports betting behavior. Users buy and sell yes-or-no shares tied to real-world outcomes, with settlement recorded on-chain and typically denominated in USDC. The public blockchain makes large wins easy to track, but wallet pseudonyms can leave the trader’s identity unclear.

Oversight debate follows the money

The latest World Cup profits come after months of scrutiny for prediction markets. U.S. lawmakers have asked Polymarket and Kalshi for information about suspicious trading controls, identity checks and wagers tied to sensitive events. Polymarket has also partnered with Chainalysis to improve on-chain monitoring and enforce market integrity rules.

Still, the World Cup cases do not prove wrongdoing. Sports upsets happen, and bold traders can make large profits when low-probability outcomes hit. However, the size of the bets and the use of new wallets will keep analysts watching closely.

For Polymarket, the challenge is clear. It must convince users, regulators and business partners that transparent blockchain records can support fair markets, not just expose giant wins after they happen.