Benzinga reported on June 12 that both prediction markets already have active bets regarding a potential merger between Tesla, owned by Elon Musk, and SpaceX. Polymarket shows an implied probability of 38% that the two companies will officially merge by December 31, with more than $560,000 wagered on this outcome. Kalshi’s bettors estimate the probability of a merger occurring this year at 24%.
Polymarket and Kalshi confirm market odds
According to Benzinga’s confirmation report on June 12:
Polymarket (under Polygon): 38% implied probability of a merger by December 31, 2026, with more than $560,000 wagered; the ruling conditions are a merger between Tesla and SpaceX or one side being acquired by the other.
Kalshi: 24% implied probability of a merger within 2026; the probability rises to 53% in May 2027.
Confirmed views from analysts and well-known investors
Dan Ives (Wedbush analyst): Assessed the likelihood of a Tesla–SpaceX merger at about 80%, and pointed out that the link between the two companies has already begun to form.
Walter Isaacson (formerly wrote a biography of Musk): Shares the same view, believing the merger has a possibility.
Ross Gerber (well-known investor): Thinks this deal is more like SpaceX absorbing Tesla into a broader structure controlled by Musk, rather than an equal merger.
All of the above views are personal assessments and not official statements.
Musk’s confirmed corporate merger track record
This year, SpaceX acquired AI startup xAI via an all-stock transaction; in 2025, xAI acquired the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). As of the time of the report, Musk’s camp has not made any public statement regarding speculation about a merger between Tesla and SpaceX.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are Polymarket’s ruling conditions for a Tesla SpaceX merger?
According to Benzinga’s report, if Tesla and SpaceX merge, Tesla is acquired by SpaceX, or SpaceX is acquired by Tesla, Polymarket will issue a “Yes” ruling. The ruling deadline is December 31, 2026. As of the time of the report, more than $560,000 has been wagered on this outcome.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different probabilities for the same question?
Polymarket shows a 38% probability of a merger by the end of 2026, while Kalshi shows a 24% probability of a merger within 2026. The specific ruling conditions and statistical methodology across the two platforms may differ. Benzinga’s report does not provide detailed methodology comparisons between the two platforms.
What confirmed corporate mergers has Musk completed previously?
SpaceX acquired xAI this year via an all-stock transaction; in 2025, xAI acquired the social media platform X (formerly Twitter). As of the time of the report, Musk has not issued an official statement regarding a potential merger between Tesla and SpaceX.
