Pierre Lindh, co-founder and managing director of Next.io, says insider trading in prediction markets is 'the most difficult point to resolve' and called it 'an impossible mission to close down the possibility of insider information.' Lindh made the assessment following Sportradar's agreement to supply official data and integrity tooling to Kalshi, a deal he described as bringing 'a lot of validation to the prediction market space.' He argued that prediction market operators lack the same incentive as sportsbooks to stop insider trading because they function as neutral intermediaries who 'will always make their fee' regardless of who wins or loses. The comments come as the sector faces mounting scrutiny over insider-trading cases and regulatory challenges, with prediction markets shifting from being 'mostly hailed as a truth machine' to part of a wider debate about the gamification of America.
Sportradar-Kalshi Deal Signals Industry Validation and Compliance Gaps
Lindh told Bitcoin.com News the Sportradar-Kalshi agreement is 'very much at the heart of settlement' — the fast, secure resolution of markets Sportradar has spent two decades standardizing in sports betting. 'That has not been the case in the prediction market space until now,' he said. He sees a second signal in the deal: the American Gaming Association has been pressuring members not to work with prediction market operators, and several have walked. Against that backdrop, 'it becomes more and more difficult for [the AGA] to hold back companies from working with the prediction markets,' Lindh said, concluding the association 'needs to start thinking about revising the kind of zero tolerance policy that they have for prediction market space, because clearly it's not working.'
The Sportradar move was followed by Nevada moving to hold Kalshi in contempt over its insufficient geofence based on an in-house solution. Lindh was blunt: 'GeoComply is the standard, just like Sportradar is the standard for settlement and official data,' highlighting that operators should lean on proven vendors 'rather than a DIY solution.' His takeaway: 'I don't think it's the right thing to save money on.'
Based on Lindh's insights, the NBA Finals produced near-parity between sports bettors and prediction markets in terms of handle, though he caveated the comparison: 'the handle is not apples to apples in that regard, which makes the industry a little bit more difficult to compare.' A sportsbook bet is placed once and settles once, while a prediction-market contract can be bought and sold many times before the event resolves — each trade is counted, inflating the prediction-market handle against a sportsbook's.
Prediction Market Operators Face Structural Insider Trading Problem
Ask Lindh where the sector is most exposed, and he reaches for the newsroom rather than the courtroom. The stories that shape public perception are insider-trading cases and big lawsuits. On insider trading, Lindh was candid: 'This is going to be the sticking point and the most difficult point to resolve.' Stock-market insider trading is 'pretty ring-fenced' and traceable, but geopolitical event markets are not: before a country is attacked, 'the soldiers are briefed,' and the information spreads outward. 'I think it's an impossible mission to close down the possibility of insider information,' he admitted.
He highlighted a key difference in business structure: unlike a sportsbook, which loses money to a bad-faith bettor, a prediction market operator is a neutral intermediary. 'If anyone loses or wins, it's not the concern of the platform. They will always make their fee,' Lindh said, so 'they don't have that big incentive to stop insider trading in the same way that the sports betting company has.' The Sportradar deal's tooling targets sports-match manipulation, not insider trading on political or geopolitical contracts, which is where the loudest scandals sit.
Polymarket updated its rules in March 2026 to ban trades on stolen confidential information, cooperating with authorities on high-profile cases like Maduro raid commando Gannon Ken Van Dyke's bets. The countermeasures are limited, Lindh said: they ban politicians and military personnel, but 'if you are active military service personnel, you can just tell your brother about this information,' and 'that person can make the trade instead.' Tightening too far carries its own cost: bans that thin out the trading pool are self-defeating, because 'the operators that have the most liquidity are the ones that can offer the best product.' The result is 'a catch-22 for the operators,' Lindh said, and his verdict: 'with the nature of the world being so chaotic as it is, it's very, very hard to stop.'
Malta Emerges as EU Regulatory Pathway for Derivatives Classification
Lindh sees one realistic doorway into Europe. Malta is 'the only jurisdiction in Europe that is thinking of regulating this product as a financial derivative product,' a classification that could open the whole EU, and 'all the big ones are exploring Malta as a potential jurisdiction of interest.' Next.io hosted Polymarket at its Malta conference weeks earlier.
Europe's top court has recently affirmed that member states can ban gambling products regardless of another country's license — and national regulators keep treating prediction markets as gambling, as the Netherlands did with Polymarket. Lindh expects operators will stop 'seeing themselves as prediction markets companies, but more as derivative companies,' and 'they'll start merging into Robinhood-type products eventually.' He also expects US states to go with a tax-rather-than-ban approach in the medium term.
Lindh sees the cultural split driving valuations: Europeans 'will see sports betting' when they look at prediction markets, while 'the Americans are more raised as traders,' with reference points in 'competition in Robinhood or competition in Coinbase,' not a bookmaker. This is why 'Flutter is floating around [a] $18 billion market cap whereas [Kalshi] is $22 billion,' and why investors 'think that [Kalshi] is the next Robinhood.'
FAQ
What did Pierre Lindh say about insider trading in prediction markets?
Pierre Lindh, co-founder of Next.io, called insider trading 'the most difficult point to resolve' in prediction markets and stated it is 'an impossible mission to close down the possibility of insider information.' He explained that prediction market operators lack the same incentive as sportsbooks to stop insider trading because they function as neutral intermediaries who 'will always make their fee' regardless of who wins or loses.
Why does Lindh see the Sportradar-Kalshi deal as significant?
Lindh told Bitcoin.com News the Sportradar agreement to supply official data and integrity tooling to Kalshi brings 'a lot of validation to the prediction market space' and is 'very much at the heart of settlement' — the fast, secure resolution of markets Sportradar has spent two decades standardizing in sports betting. He also said the deal signals the American Gaming Association's 'zero tolerance policy' for prediction markets 'is not working' as partners continue to defect.
What is Malta's role in prediction market regulation in Europe?
Lindh identified Malta as 'the only jurisdiction in Europe that is thinking of regulating this product as a financial derivative product,' a classification that could open the whole EU. He said 'all the big ones are exploring Malta as a potential jurisdiction of interest,' and Next.io hosted Polymarket at its Malta conference weeks earlier.
