Morningstar analyst Krzysztof Smalec recently identified industrial gas producer Linde Plc. (LIN) as a low-risk investment alternative for exposure to SpaceX's commercial space operations, noting the company supports 70% of all SpaceX launches as its primary supplier of liquid oxygen and liquid nitrogen. The analyst's assessment comes as investor demand for SpaceX's initial public offering far exceeds available shares, with the company planning to sell 555.6 million shares at $135 each to raise $75 billion at a $1.8 trillion valuation. Morningstar argued investors are underestimating Linde's exposure to SpaceX's growing launch activity, particularly as only 7% of SpaceX shares will be available for public trading following the IPO.
Linde Supplies 70% of SpaceX Launches
Linde serves as SpaceX's primary supplier of liquid oxygen, liquid nitrogen, and other industrial gases used at launch sites in Texas and Florida. The company recently stated it supports 70% of SpaceX launches, making it one of the most important suppliers in the rocket maker's ecosystem. Morningstar noted that Linde has expanded capacity around SpaceX facilities to support future launch demand. The brokerage stated that Linde shares trade about 6% below its fair value estimate. Linde recently started a new air separation unit in Brownsville, Texas, to support Starship launches from Starbase, while another expansion in Florida is expected to begin operating in 2027.
U.K.-based Linde was formed through the merger of Germany's Linde AG and U.S.-based Praxair in 2018. The company's revenue rose to $34 billion in 2025 from $14.8 billion in 2018, while operating profit increased to $8.9 billion from $5.2 billion. Its market cap currently stands at $235 billion, up from $91 billion after the merger. LIN stock has risen 9% over the past year.
Morningstar Forecasts Space Revenue Growth for Linde
Morningstar estimates that space-related business currently accounts for 1% of Linde's revenue, but forecasts that figure could rise to 8% by 2040. The brokerage stated that the SpaceX IPO will put a major spotlight on the rocket launch supply chain, which has historically been overlooked by investors. Morningstar said, "Although we estimate that the space end market currently accounts for only a low-single-digit percentage of revenue for the three industrial gas firms we cover, we expect it to become a meaningful driver of revenue growth, particularly for Linde, the world's largest industrial gas producer."
Analysts Issue Strong Buy Rating on Linde Stock
According to Koyfin consensus estimates, Linde carries a consensus Strong Buy rating from 27 analysts, with an average price target of $545.04, implying a 7% upside from current levels. Analysts currently include 22 Buy or Strong Buy ratings, compared with four Holds and one Sell. LIN trades at 27.9x expected earnings over the next 12 months and 18x forward EBITDA.
On Stocktwits, SpaceX drew extremely bullish sentiment with extremely high message volumes, while LIN was rated neutral on high chatter. One user stated, "LIN solid financials, a GREAT technical setup, pricing power for essential forms of energy including those critical to AI, SpaceX's primary supplier for industrial gas, ~93% institutional ownership leading to a relatively low true retail share float and ever-shrinking count of it due to aggressively significant buybacks this company is poised to break ATHs and run." Another user noted, "primary industrial gas supplier for SpaceX. Boosting the supply chain near the TX base."
FAQ
What percentage of SpaceX launches does Linde support?
Linde recently stated it supports 70% of all SpaceX launches as the company's primary supplier of liquid oxygen, liquid nitrogen, and other industrial gases used at launch sites in Texas and Florida.
What is the analyst consensus rating on Linde stock?
According to Koyfin consensus estimates, Linde carries a Strong Buy rating from 27 analysts, with an average price target of $545.04, implying a 7% upside. The consensus includes 22 Buy or Strong Buy ratings, four Holds, and one Sell.
How much of Linde's revenue comes from space-related business?
Morningstar estimates that space-related business currently accounts for 1% of Linde's revenue, but the brokerage forecasts that figure could rise to 8% by 2040 as SpaceX increases its launch cadence.
