Kpler Maps Three-Phase Hormuz Strait Recovery if U.S.-Iran Deal Implemented, 118-Tanker Backlog to Clear in 15 Days

According to Kpler analysts on Monday, June 15, the Strait of Hormuz could gradually resume transit within a month if the U.S.-Iran peace agreement is successfully implemented. The analysts outlined a three-phase recovery plan: first, 118 oil tankers currently trapped in the Persian Gulf will prioritize departure within 15 days; second, new vessel inflows will recover to roughly 50% of pre-conflict levels within 30 days, with approximately 12 tankers daily entering the Gulf; third, total daily throughput is expected to reach 40 vessels, though still far below the pre-conflict average of around 100 vessels.

However, significant risks remain. The U.S. and Iran appear to hold differing interpretations of the agreement's terms—Iranian state media indicates 60-day free transit followed by joint Iran-Oman management, while U.S. Vice President JD Vance stated the strait should maintain a perpetual free-transit system. Mine threats also pose concerns, with shipping body BIMCO warning that "mine threats in the region remain worrying" and security risks remaining elevated.