JPMorgan: Stablecoin trading volume surges, but the velocity mechanism prevents market cap from growing proportionally

JPMorgan analyst released its latest stablecoin market watch on May 1, noting that stablecoin trading volume is rising rapidly, but that an increase in “velocity” means total market cap may not grow in lockstep. JPM also reiterated its long-term stance: by 2028, it expects stablecoin market value to be about $500-600 billion, not the “trillion-dollar” level often cited by optimistic market watchers. This view contrasts with a16z’s 4/30 argument that “stablecoins have become the basic threshold, and the future is programmable money,” continuing the debate in different directions.

Current numbers: Q1 market cap $315 billion, Q1 trading volume $2.8 trillion, annualized $1.72 trillion

2026 Q1 stablecoin market figures: total market cap $315 billion, a record high; Q1 trading volume $2.8 trillion (up 51% quarter-over-quarter). Based on data from the start of the year, the JPM analyst estimates full-year trading volume annualized at about $1.72 trillion. If this number is realized, it would be more than twice the scale of 2025.

The core of JPM’s argument is the “velocity mechanism”: when the same stablecoin is used repeatedly within a shorter time window, trading volume can surge, but the market still only needs the same scale of stablecoin supply in circulation. In other words, trading volume expansion and market cap expansion follow two different growth curves—trading volume grows faster, while market cap grows slower.

2028 forecast: $500-600 billion, not trillion-dollar

JPM reiterated its estimated range for stablecoin market cap in 2028: $500-600 billion. This figure is clearly more conservative than other optimistic projections within the same industry (some estimates suggest it could reach $1-2 trillion by 2030). JPM’s point is that stablecoin demand is still mainly a “crypto-market story,” not a “payments story”—most user use cases are crypto trading, arbitrage, and cross-platform transfers, while true retail payments penetration remains at an early stage.

This stance differs from a16z’s 5/1 claim that “stablecoins will become obsolete, and the future will be programmable money.” The two are making judgments in different directions: a16z believes the technology has matured enough to be described by what it can do, while JPM argues that the core application scenarios of what it can do have not yet moved beyond the crypto market, putting a cap on scale growth. For the crypto industry, within 24 hours the two flagship institutions issued their own positions, reflecting that the stablecoin debate has entered the “mainstream investment firm discussion phase.”

Next watch: whether JPM adjusts its valuation range in the Q2 report, and the impact of the GENIUS Act legislation

JPM typically releases updated estimates each quarter. The next key observation will be whether its Q2 2026 interim report (expected to be released at the end of July) adjusts its 2028 market cap range. Another structural variable is the CLARITY Act, which may enter the Senate Banking Committee for line-by-line consideration in May—if the legislation clearly defines the legal status of stablecoins, the regulatory boundaries, and how they interact with banks, it will affect how quickly stablecoins expand from “crypto market tools” into “real payment scenarios.”

This article JPMorgan: Stablecoin trading volume skyrockets, but the velocity mechanism means market cap won’t grow proportionally first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.